Serie A Gameweek 29 Sun, Mar 21 · 17:30 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli
Napoli 9th · 10 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Venezia 20th · 3 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel533 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Napoli—%
Draw—%
Venezia—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Napoli)

Forecast from 6 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Napoli and Venezia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

NapoliVenezia
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
61 Current StrengthIn forecast 15
61 AttackIn forecast 21
70 DefenceIn forecast 14
44 Form indexContext 19
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—
Defense risk—

Venezia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NapoliVenezia
1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.29
1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.43
0.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.38
-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.57
86% Scored inContext 57%
43% Clean sheetsContext 14%
16.71 ShotsContext 14.14
5.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.43
33% On target shareContext 31%
11.86 Shots in the boxContext 9.29
70% Box shareContext 69%
9% ConversionContext 6%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.83
15.57 Shots allowedContext 17.29
3.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.14
4.40 BlocksContext 4.14
2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
74% Save rateContext 69%
53% PossessionIn forecast 54%
510 PassesContext 470
443 Accurate passesContext 400
87% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.75
8.57 FoulsContext 9.86
8.86 Fouls sufferedContext 10.29
0.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.86
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.33
0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.08
-0.61 Goals minus xGContext -0.33
80% Scored inContext 60%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.70 ShotsContext 13.00
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10
34% On target shareContext 32%
10.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.60
67% Box shareContext 69%
8% ConversionContext 8%
2.90 OffsidesContext 2.38
16.20 Shots allowedContext 17.10
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
5.13 BlocksContext 4.50
2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56
69% Save rateContext 65%
53% PossessionIn forecast 51%
516 PassesContext 438
450 Accurate passesContext 367
87% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.76
9.00 FoulsContext 10.90
9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
1.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km941 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Venezia0–12.3 xPts
  • L13 OctA · Villarreal1–31.1 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Frosinone3–02.1 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Fiorentina1–11.6 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Bologna1–01.7 xPts
Venezia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel533 km407 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 19 · 3 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Napoli1–00.6 xPts
  • L12 OctA · Atalanta1–30.5 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Lazio0–20.6 xPts
  • L11 SepH · Fiorentina2–41.2 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Frosinone2–30.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Napoli Venezia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Serie A 2026-2027, 14 Mar7Serie A 2026-2027, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km533 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways941 km407 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Venezia (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
1A. Meret(G)
5B. Badiashile 13A. Rrahmani 31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola 68S. Lobotka 6B. Gilmour 22G. Di Lorenzo
8S. McTominay 23Giovane
20L. Lucca
Venezia Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs Napoli (H) 1–0, 17 Oct
1F. Stanković(G)
15Juan Jesus 2M. Moreno 25R. Halhal
5R. Haps 26T. Bašić 19S. Sohm 71Kike Pérez 18A. Hainaut
45A. Adams 10J. Yeboah

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Napoli Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Venezia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
1.67
Conceded
0.67
Venezia · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentNapoliVenezia
Frosinone W 3–0 H L 2–3 A
Fiorentina D 1–1 A L 2–4 H
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Napoli wins1 draws1 Venezia wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.20 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets80% · 40%
  • 17 Oct 2026Venezia1–0Napoli
  • 16 Mar 2025Venezia0–0Napoli
  • 29 Dec 2024Napoli1–0Venezia
  • 6 Feb 2022Venezia0–2Napoli
  • 22 Aug 2021Napoli2–0Venezia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

NapoliVeneziaForecast
Scored per game 1.430.86
Conceded per game 1.002.29
Match goals 2.433.14
Over 1.5 71%86%
Over 2.5 43%43%
Over 3.5 14%43%
Both teams scored 43%43%
Clean sheets 43%14%
Failed to score 14%43%
Games77
NapoliVeneziaForecast
Scored per game 1.200.86
Conceded per game 1.102.29
Match goals 2.303.14
Over 1.5 60%86%
Over 2.5 40%43%
Over 3.5 20%43%
Both teams scored 40%43%
Clean sheets 40%14%
Failed to score 20%43%
Games107

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

NapoliVeneziaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.604.33
Corners conceded6.004.17
Match total10.608.509.38
Over 8.5100% 5/533% 2/6
Over 9.560% 3/517% 1/6
Over 10.520% 1/517% 1/6
Cards
Cards0.862.86
Opponent cards1.291.14
Match total2.154.003.43
Over 3.50% 0/757% 4/7
Over 4.50% 0/729% 2/7
NapoliVeneziaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.884.56
Corners conceded5.384.89
Match total9.269.459.38
Over 8.563% 5/844% 4/9
Over 9.538% 3/833% 3/9
Over 10.513% 1/833% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.102.30
Opponent cards1.601.60
Match total2.703.903.43
Over 3.520% 2/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Napoli7 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
0-15
3 1 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Venezia7 games · scored 6 · conceded 16
2 0-15
1 4 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 2 61-75
1 4 76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1 0-15
4 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
Venezia10 games · scored 10 · conceded 23
1 3 0-15
1 5 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 4 61-75
1 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Serie A

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