Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were slight favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fiorentina. Fiorentina had 6 days of rest, Inter 8.2 and had to travel 248 km.
Away travel248 kmRest days6 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fiorentina25%
Draw28%
Inter46%
Fiorentina20%
Draw24%
Inter56%
Fiorentina24%
Draw28%
Inter48%
Fiorentina20%
Draw26%
Inter54%
Fiorentina26%
Draw27%
Inter47%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 68
Team strength
Fiorentina
Inter
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
42
AttackIn forecast
91
34
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaInter
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.24
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.79
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.74
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
72%
Scored inContext
93%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
52%
13.38
ShotsContext
17.83
3.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.03
27%
On target shareContext
34%
8.52
Shots in the boxContext
12.52
62%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.48
Shots allowedContext
8.03
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.12
3.24
BlocksContext
2.70
2.96
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.39
65%
Save rateContext
78%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
430
PassesContext
541
366
Accurate passesContext
474
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.07
FoulsContext
13.24
16.17
Fouls sufferedContext
10.97
2.24
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.00
ShotsContext
17.80
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
31%
On target shareContext
33%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.50
60%
Box shareContext
76%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
10.40
Shots allowedContext
7.40
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
2.89
BlocksContext
2.00
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
67%
Save rateContext
72%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
442
PassesContext
584
373
Accurate passesContext
517
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.80
FoulsContext
11.10
16.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km358 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel248 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 16 Mar | 8.2Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 248 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 358 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.8 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
21R. Gosens
6L. Ranieri
5M. Pongračić
2Dodô
44N. Fagioli
10A. Guðmundsson
27C. Ndour
4M. Brescianini
65F. Parisi
20M. Kean
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
30Carlos Augusto
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
7P. Zieliński
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
2D. Dumfries
94F. Esposito
9M. Thuram
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina+1.6 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Inter-2.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
1.00points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-6
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.36
Inter · Away
2.36points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 11-0-3
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 0.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Udinese | L 0–3 AW 5–1 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Pisa | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Como | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Torino | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | W 5–0 H |
| Napoli | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Bologna | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Lazio | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Verona | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 A | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Juventus | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A |
| Genoa | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Lecce | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 28 of 84 · 1.00 per game | 65 of 84 · 2.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Fiorentina wins1 draws6 Inter wins
Goals per game1.11 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 29 Oct 2025Inter3–0Fiorentina
- 10 Feb 2025Inter2–1Fiorentina
- 6 Feb 2025Fiorentina3–0Inter
- 28 Jan 2024Fiorentina0–1Inter
- 3 Sep 2023Inter4–0Fiorentina
- 1 Apr 2023Inter0–1Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 2.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 0.79 | |
| Match goals | 2.66 | 3.03 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 52% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 41% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 52% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 7% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Fiorentina | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.61 | 6.41 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 2.59 | |
| Match total | 9.04 | 9.00 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 15/28 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 7/28 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.34 | 1.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 1.72 | |
| Match total | 4.65 | 3.31 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 20/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 17/29 | 17% 5/29 | |
| Fiorentina | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 8.30 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.20 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.78league 3.75
Red cards0.18league 0.19
Cards 5+54%league 35%
Fouls24.8league 25.1
Penalties0.16league 0.30
Home wins38%league 40%
Fiorentina6 with this referee
Record0-3-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D7 Feb 26H · Torino2–23
- L14 Dec 25H · Verona1–21
- L5 Oct 25H · AS Roma1–23
- L9 Mar 25A · Napoli1–22
- D1 Sep 24H · Monza2–22
Inter8 with this referee
Record6-0-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W7 Jan 26A · Parma2–03
- L13 Sep 25A · Juventus3–41
- L20 Apr 25A · Bologna0–13
- W23 Nov 24A · Verona5–01
- W22 Apr 24A · AC Milan2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fiorentina28 games · scored 33 · conceded 41
3
6
0-15
5
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
10
9
46-60
7
6
61-75
4
10
76-90
Inter29 games · scored 65 · conceded 23
9
2
0-15
9
4
16-30
10
5
31-45
8
2
46-60
12
2
61-75
17
8
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
