Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Parma. Fiorentina had 5.8 days of rest, Parma 8.8 and had to travel 135 km.
Away travel135 kmRest days5.8 · 8.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fiorentina47%
Draw27%
Parma25%
Fiorentina47%
Draw26%
Parma27%
Fiorentina45%
Draw28%
Parma27%
Fiorentina40%
Draw28%
Parma32%
Fiorentina48%
Draw26%
Parma26%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 35
Team strength
Fiorentina
Parma
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
42
AttackIn forecast
20
34
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaParma
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.74
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
74%
Scored inContext
56%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.44
ShotsContext
11.30
3.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.16
26%
On target shareContext
26%
8.52
Shots in the boxContext
6.68
62%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.74
Shots allowedContext
14.04
4.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.26
3.37
BlocksContext
4.19
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
65%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
429
PassesContext
360
364
Accurate passesContext
290
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.96
FoulsContext
10.56
16.26
Fouls sufferedContext
13.52
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.70
ShotsContext
11.30
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
31%
On target shareContext
23%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
63%
Box shareContext
51%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.50
Shots allowedContext
14.30
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.89
BlocksContext
4.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
66%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
444
PassesContext
408
380
Accurate passesContext
341
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.50
FoulsContext
10.80
17.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km598 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel135 km232 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Mar | 8.8Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 135 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 598 km | 232 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
21R. Gosens
6L. Ranieri
5M. Pongračić
2Dodô
44N. Fagioli
10A. Guðmundsson
27C. Ndour
8R. Mandragora
17J. Harrison
91R. Piccoli
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
39A. Circati
37Mariano Troilo
15E. Delprato
16L. Keita
14E. Valeri
22O. Sørensen
41H. Nicolussi
25B. Cremaschi
7Gabriel Strefezza
9Mateo Pellegrino
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina+2.0 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Parma-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
1.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-6
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.46
Parma · Away
1.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-4
- Scored
- 0.69
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | L 0–3 AW 5–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Pisa | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Como | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Torino | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Napoli | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Bologna | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Lazio | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Verona | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Juventus | D 1–1 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Genoa | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Lecce | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 24 of 78 · 0.92 per game | 30 of 78 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Fiorentina wins2 draws1 Parma wins
Goals per game0.33 – 0.67
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 27 Dec 2025Parma1–0Fiorentina
- 13 Apr 2025Fiorentina0–0Parma
- 17 Aug 2024Parma1–1Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 0.74 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.93 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 41% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 44% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Fiorentina | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.10 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.38 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 15/27 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 14/27 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 7/27 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.44 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 4.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 20/27 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 17/27 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Fiorentina | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 7.89 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 4.10 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.80league 3.76
Red cards0.11league 0.19
Cards 5+29%league 36%
Fouls23.7league 25.2
Penalties0.31league 0.31
Home wins57%league 39%
Fiorentina4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L13 Sep 25H · Napoli1–30
- W18 May 25H · Bologna3–24
- W10 Nov 24H · Verona3–11
- W13 May 24H · Monza2–11
Parma2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Dec 24H · Lazio3–14
- D30 Oct 24A · Juventus2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fiorentina26 games · scored 29 · conceded 40
3
6
0-15
4
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
9
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
4
10
76-90
Parma27 games · scored 20 · conceded 32
2
6
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
7
61-75
7
8
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
