Fiorentina vs Udinese – 21 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 21 · 17:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 20th · 6 pts · 15 played DDLLL

5–1Full time

Udinese 11th · 21 pts · 15 played LLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were slight favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 31). Absences weigh more on Udinese. Fiorentina had 7.1 days of rest, Udinese 7.1 and had to travel 299 km.

Away travel299 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Fiorentina49%

Draw27%

Udinese24%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.00

Fiorentina49%

Draw26%

Udinese25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.10

Fiorentina48%

Draw27%

Udinese25%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.00

Fiorentina42%

Draw28%

Udinese30%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.12

Fiorentina50%

Draw26%

Udinese24%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.09

Over 2.5 46% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 93

Team strength

Fiorentina

Udinese

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

42 AttackIn forecast 22

34 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Udinese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Udinese

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.07

1.73 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.47

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.49 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

67% Scored inContext 80%

13% Clean sheetsContext 27%

11.87 ShotsContext 12.47

2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.93

23% On target shareContext 32%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.21

61% Box shareContext 56%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.70

13.20 Shots allowedContext 11.53

5.07 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.23

3.13 BlocksContext 3.13

3.27 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.77

65% Save rateContext 66%

52% PossessionIn forecast 47%

395 PassesContext 356

326 Accurate passesContext 288

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.93 FoulsContext 13.80

17.13 Fouls sufferedContext 11.47

2.27 Yellow cardsContext 1.87

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

60% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.70 ShotsContext 13.00

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

27% On target shareContext 29%

9.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

68% Box shareContext 62%

6% ConversionContext 9%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.67

13.10 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38

4.00 BlocksContext 3.60

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

67% Save rateContext 69%

54% PossessionIn forecast 47%

446 PassesContext 347

375 Accurate passesContext 275

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.80 FoulsContext 14.70

16.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Udinese

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel299 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Udinese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Dec	7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	299 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-4-2

43David de Gea(G)

6L. Ranieri 5M. Pongračić 15P. Comuzzo 2Dodô

27C. Ndour 44N. Fagioli 8R. Mandragora 65F. Parisi

10A. Guðmundsson 20M. Kean

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Udinese Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40M. Okoye(G)

28O. Solet 27C. Kabasele 31T. Kristensen

13N. Bertola 24J. Piotrowski 8J. Karlström 59A. Zanoli

32J. Ekkelenkamp 10N. Zaniolo

9K. Davis

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Udinese Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina+1.0 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Udinese-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.29points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.86

Udinese · Away 1.43points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-3
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.43

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 13 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	Udinese
Verona	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Sassuolo	L 1–3 A	L 1–3 A
Atalanta	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Juventus	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Genoa	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 H
Lecce	L 0–1 H	W 3–2 H
Inter	L 0–3 A	W 2–1 A
Bologna	D 2–2 H	L 0–3 H
AC Milan	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 H
AS Roma	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 A
Pisa	D 0–0 A	W 1–0 A
Napoli	L 1–3 H	W 1–0 H
Cagliari	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Points	5 of 39 · 0.38 per game	17 of 39 · 1.31 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Fiorentina wins1 draws3 Udinese wins

Goals per game1.38 – 1.38 Over 2.550% Both scored38% Clean sheets38% · 25%

25 May 2025Udinese2–3Fiorentina
23 Dec 2024Fiorentina1–2Udinese
14 Jan 2024Fiorentina2–2Udinese
24 Sep 2023Udinese0–2Fiorentina
14 May 2023Fiorentina2–0Udinese
31 Aug 2022Udinese1–0Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.07
Conceded per game	1.73	1.47
Match goals	2.53	2.53	2.53
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	47%	46%
Over 3.5	27%	20%
Both teams scored	67%	53%	50%
Clean sheets	13%	27%
Failed to score	33%	20%
Games	15	15

	Fiorentina	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.10
Conceded per game	2.00	1.40
Match goals	2.90	2.50	2.53
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	4.71
Corners conceded	4.47	4.43
Match total	9.14	9.14	8.77
Over 8.5	60% 9/15	43% 6/14
Over 9.5	53% 8/15	36% 5/14
Over 10.5	27% 4/15	36% 5/14
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.87
Opponent cards	2.27	1.40
Match total	4.60	3.27	4.04
Over 3.5	73% 11/15	47% 7/15
Over 4.5	60% 9/15	20% 3/15

	Fiorentina	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.80
Corners conceded	4.20	4.00
Match total	9.50	8.80	8.77
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.50
Opponent cards	2.40	1.70
Match total	5.20	3.20	4.04
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 93 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 3.91

Red cards0.20league 0.16

Cards 5+40%league 39%

Fouls24.1league 26.0

Penalties0.25league 0.32

Home wins46%league 40%

Fiorentina5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

D29 Dec 24A · Juventus2–21
L31 Aug 22A · Udinese0–12
L16 May 22A · Sampdoria1–43
W10 Apr 22A · Napoli3–23
W28 Aug 21H · Torino2–14

Udinese7 with this referee

Record4-3-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W1 Feb 25H · Venezia3–23
D11 Jan 25H · Atalanta0–01
W5 Oct 24H · Lecce1–02
D18 Feb 24H · Cagliari1–13
D1 Oct 23H · Genoa2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.