UEFA Europa League Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 29 · 20:00 Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd
FK Crvena Zvezda 11th · 13 pts · 7 played
1–1Full time
Celta Vigo 14th · 12 pts · 7 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 45). FK Crvena Zvezda had 7.1 days of rest, Celta Vigo 4.1 and had to travel 2,358 km.

Away travel2,358 kmRest days7.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 3
FK Crvena Zvezda34%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo40%
Expected goals 1.33 – 1.47
FK Crvena Zvezda33%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo40%
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.42
FK Crvena Zvezda33%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo41%
Expected goals 1.32 – 1.49
FK Crvena Zvezda27%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo47%
Expected goals 1.19 – 1.65
FK Crvena Zvezda34%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo40%
Expected goals 1.31 – 1.45
Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Beograd)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
  • Cards per match 4.9
  • Penalties per match 0.14
  • Matches 63

Team strength

FK Crvena ZvezdaCelta Vigo
45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64
42 Current StrengthIn forecast 54
40 AttackIn forecast 36
39 DefenceIn forecast 61
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack—
Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FK Crvena ZvezdaCelta Vigo
0.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43
1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50
-0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.72
86% Scored inContext 100%
57% Clean sheetsContext 14%
11.71 ShotsContext 11.57
3.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.29
27% On target shareContext 37%
7.57 Shots in the boxContext 7.71
64% Box shareContext 63%
7% ConversionContext 17%
2.29 OffsidesContext 2.20
11.29 Shots allowedContext 12.14
3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
2.86 BlocksContext 3.86
2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57
70% Save rateContext 64%
47% PossessionIn forecast 48%
414 PassesContext 467
333 Accurate passesContext 400
80% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.80
11.43 FoulsContext 12.86
12.14 Fouls sufferedContext 9.57
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 2.29
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.17
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24
-0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.43
90% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 50%
13.22 ShotsContext 8.50
3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
26% On target shareContext 47%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
67% Box shareContext 65%
7% ConversionContext 19%
2.38 OffsidesContext 2.13
11.56 Shots allowedContext 13.80
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60
2.78 BlocksContext 4.30
2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80
68% Save rateContext 78%
48% PossessionIn forecast 47%
405 PassesContext 427
326 Accurate passesContext 358
80% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.84
11.78 FoulsContext 10.60
13.22 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FK Crvena Zvezda
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,623 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Celta Vigo
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel2,358 km1,127 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FK Crvena Zvezda Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,358 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,623 km1,127 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 12 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one212.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FK Crvena Zvezda Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1Matheus(G)
23N. Tiknizyan 5Rodrigão 13M. Veljković 66Y. Seol
21T. Elšnik 33R. Krunić
10A. Katai 22V. Kostov 24N. Stanković
89M. Arnautović
+2 more reported missing outside this XI
Celta Vigo Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso 29Yoel Lago 32Javi Rodríguez
5Sergio Carreira 6I. Moriba 16Miguel Román 17Javi Rueda
23Hugo Álvarez 10Iago Aspas
7Borja Iglesias
+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FK Crvena Zvezda Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • FK Crvena Zvezda+0.7 pp
  • Draw+0.1 pp
  • Celta Vigo-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

FK Crvena Zvezda · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.33
Celta Vigo · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentFK Crvena ZvezdaCelta Vigo
Lille W 1–0 H W 2–1 H
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

FK Crvena ZvezdaCelta VigoForecast
Scored per game 0.862.00
Conceded per game 0.711.43
Match goals 1.573.43 2.80
Over 1.5 43%100%
Over 2.5 14%100% 53%
Over 3.5 0%29%
Both teams scored 29%86% 57%
Clean sheets 57%14%
Failed to score 14%0%
Games77
FK Crvena ZvezdaCelta VigoForecast
Scored per game 0.861.60
Conceded per game 0.710.80
Match goals 1.572.40 2.80
Over 1.5 43%70%
Over 2.5 14%50% 53%
Over 3.5 0%20%
Both teams scored 29%40% 57%
Clean sheets 57%50%
Failed to score 14%20%
Games710

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FK Crvena ZvezdaCelta VigoLeague
Corners
Corners won5.144.33
Corners conceded4.004.00
Match total9.148.339.07
Over 8.557% 4/750% 3/6
Over 9.557% 4/733% 2/6
Over 10.543% 3/717% 1/6
Cards
Cards2.292.43
Opponent cards1.861.71
Match total4.154.144.35
Over 3.557% 4/786% 6/7
Over 4.543% 3/743% 3/7
FK Crvena ZvezdaCelta VigoLeague
Corners
Corners won5.783.22
Corners conceded3.895.00
Match total9.678.229.07
Over 8.556% 5/944% 4/9
Over 9.556% 5/933% 3/9
Over 10.544% 4/922% 2/9
Cards
Cards2.502.00
Opponent cards1.802.60
Match total4.304.604.35
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 63 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.75league 4.13
Red cards0.19league 0.21
Cards 5+56%league 42%
Fouls24.6league 24.2
Penalties0.14league 0.36
Home wins40%league 51%
FK Crvena Zvezda

No previous matches with this referee.

Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FK Crvena Zvezda7 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 1 76-90
Celta Vigo7 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
3 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 2 46-60
4 4 61-75
2 1 76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
2 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 31-45
4 2 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

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