FK Crvena Zvezda vs Lille – 26 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 26 · 17:45 Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd

FK Crvena Zvezda 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

First leg1–0 0–2Full time

Lille 12th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FK Crvena Zvezda were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards FK Crvena Zvezda. FK Crvena Zvezda had 6.9 days of rest, Lille 4.1 and had to travel 1,442 km.

Away travel1,442 kmRest days6.9 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 3

FK Crvena Zvezda44%

Draw27%

Lille28%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.12

FK Crvena Zvezda42%

Draw27%

Lille31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

FK Crvena Zvezda44%

Draw28%

Lille29%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.12

FK Crvena Zvezda37%

Draw28%

Lille35%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.25

FK Crvena Zvezda44%

Draw28%

Lille28%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.06

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Beograd)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 200

Team strength

FK Crvena Zvezda

Lille

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

42 Current StrengthIn forecast 52

40 AttackIn forecast 42

39 DefenceIn forecast 60

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FK Crvena Zvezda

Lille

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.65

90% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.20 ShotsContext 13.40

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

28% On target shareContext 26%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

69% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 4%

2.20 OffsidesContext 1.75

10.20 Shots allowedContext 9.00

3.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

2.67 BlocksContext 2.20

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

72% Save rateContext 56%

48% PossessionIn forecast 56%

417 PassesContext 490

338 Accurate passesContext 422

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.30 FoulsContext 9.90

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FK Crvena Zvezda

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,884 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lille

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,442 km885 km in 14d

Schedule load27%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FK Crvena Zvezda	Lille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb	4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,442 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,884 km	885 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	2 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	159	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FK Crvena Zvezda Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

1Matheus(G)

30F. Tebo Uchenna 5Rodrigão 25S. Eraković

33R. Krunić

23N. Tiknizyan 20Tomás Händel 22V. Kostov 66Y. Seol

17Bruno Duarte 42J. Enem

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 23A. Mandi 18C. Mbemba 22Tiago Santos

32A. Bouaddi 21B. André

7M. Fernandez-Pardo 10H. Haraldsson 28G. Perrin

9O. Giroud

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FK Crvena Zvezda Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lille Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Lille-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

FK Crvena Zvezda · Home No home games yet this season.

Lille · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 FK Crvena Zvezda wins0 draws0 Lille wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

19 Feb 2026Lille0–1FK Crvena Zvezda
6 Nov 2025FK Crvena Zvezda1–0Lille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FK Crvena Zvezda	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.57
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	FK Crvena Zvezda	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	0.89	0.50
Conceded per game	0.67	1.40
Match goals	1.56	1.90	2.57
Over 1.5	44%	50%
Over 2.5	11%	30%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	10%
Both teams scored	33%	30%	52%
Clean sheets	56%	30%
Failed to score	11%	50%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FK Crvena Zvezda	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	6.00
Corners conceded	6.00	7.00
Match total	13.00	13.00	8.86
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	4.00
Match total	5.00	5.00	3.43
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	FK Crvena Zvezda	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	6.60
Corners conceded	3.80	2.90
Match total	8.70	9.50	8.86
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.60
Opponent cards	1.80	1.80
Match total	4.30	3.40	3.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.75league 3.63

Red cards0.15league 0.00

Cards 5+36%league 38%

Fouls21.0league 21.8

Penalties0.24league 0.00

Home wins35%league 13%

FK Crvena Zvezda1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D23 Aug 22H · Maccabi Haifa2–24

Lille1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W23 Nov 21H · Red Bull Salzburg1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.