Serie A Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 29 · 17:30 Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel428 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Frosinone—%
Draw—%
Parma—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Frosinone)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Frosinone and Parma. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

FrosinoneParma
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
30 Current StrengthIn forecast 28
41 AttackIn forecast 20
25 DefenceIn forecast 33
69 Form indexContext 23
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Frosinone

Attack—
Defense risk—

Parma

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FrosinoneParma
1.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.57
1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86
1.41 xGVia Att/Def 0.67
2.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.10
71% Scored inContext 43%
29% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.29 ShotsContext 10.57
5.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43
31% On target shareContext 32%
10.86 Shots in the boxContext 7.50
65% Box shareContext 65%
11% ConversionContext 5%
3.00 OffsidesContext 1.83
19.43 Shots allowedContext 17.00
5.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.29
5.29 BlocksContext 4.29
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57
75% Save rateContext 68%
42% PossessionIn forecast 43%
305 PassesContext 394
227 Accurate passesContext 324
74% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.62
14.86 FoulsContext 9.86
11.86 Fouls sufferedContext 15.43
1.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.57
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70
1.41 xGVia Att/Def 0.70
2.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.77
-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
60% Scored inContext 50%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
17.50 ShotsContext 10.30
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20
31% On target shareContext 31%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.50
61% Box shareContext 63%
8% ConversionContext 7%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.11
17.40 Shots allowedContext 16.20
5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10
4.60 BlocksContext 4.50
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60
77% Save rateContext 71%
43% PossessionIn forecast 42%
315 PassesContext 367
241 Accurate passesContext 300
76% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.71
12.70 FoulsContext 10.50
11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Frosinone
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,082 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.1 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · Sassuolo4–21.5 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Napoli0–30.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Como2–00.7 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Genoa1–11.1 xPts
  • W6 SepH · Venezia3–21.9 xPts
Parma
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel428 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • L19 OctH · Torino0–31.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Inter0–30.3 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Genoa2–11.6 xPts
  • L14 SepA · Como1–20.4 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Monza1–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Frosinone Parma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1Serie A 2026-2027, 22 Nov8Serie A 2026-2027, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km428 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,082 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Frosinone Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sassuolo (H) 4–2, 16 Oct
22L. Palmisani(G)
79G. Bracaglia 30I. Monterisi 2G. Cittadini 20A. Oyono
14Giacomo Calò 73P. Masini
17G. Kvernadze 10R. Schmid 7F. Ghedjemis
9A. Raimondo
Parma Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Torino (H) 0–3, 19 Oct
40E. Corvi(G)
15E. Delprato 37Mariano Troilo 34Diego Carlos
14E. Valeri 16L. Keita 10Adrián Bernabé 27Sascha Britschgi
19E. Touré 80G. Fabbian
9D. Romero

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Frosinone Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Parma Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Frosinone · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
2.25
Conceded
1.25
Parma · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.33
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goal timing

Frosinone7 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
3 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 1 76-90
Parma7 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
2 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
2 3 76-90
Frosinone10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4 1 0-15
4 3 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 5 76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
2 0-15
4 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
4 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.