AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel541 kmRest days14 · 15Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real contextStrength only
AC Milan—%
Draw—%
Frosinone—%
Weather (Milano)
Forecast from 7 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for AC Milan and Frosinone. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
AC Milan
+0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.27
-
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
AC Milan
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Frosinone
−0.79
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.41xG against2.20
-
Trend
Frosinone
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
AC Milan
+0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.27
-
Trend
AC Milan
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Frosinone
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
AC Milan
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Frosinone
−0.79
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.41xG against2.20
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AC MilanFrosinone
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
72
AttackIn forecast
41
69
DefenceIn forecast
25
74
Form indexContext
69
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFrosinone
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanFrosinone
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.20
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
100%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.29
ShotsContext
17.29
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.29
38%
On target shareContext
31%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
10.86
67%
Box shareContext
65%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.60
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.57
Shots allowedContext
19.43
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.71
2.67
BlocksContext
5.29
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.29
75%
Save rateContext
75%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
583
PassesContext
305
522
Accurate passesContext
227
90%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.29
FoulsContext
14.86
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.86
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.20
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.20
ShotsContext
17.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
38%
On target shareContext
31%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
69%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.86
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.70
Shots allowedContext
17.40
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.44
BlocksContext
4.60
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
78%
Save rateContext
77%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
556
PassesContext
315
498
Accurate passesContext
241
90%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.90
FoulsContext
12.70
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
LWDWW
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km239 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Frosinone
WDWLW
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel541 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Frosinone |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Serie A 2026-2027, 8 Nov | 15Serie A 2026-2027, 7 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 541 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 239 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 0 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Last XI · not confirmed
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira
14L. Modrić
80Y. Musah
21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić
9Gonçalo Ramos
12A. Rabiot
Frosinone
Last XI · not confirmed
22L. Palmisani(G)
79G. Bracaglia
30I. Monterisi
2G. Cittadini
20A. Oyono
14Giacomo Calò
73P. Masini
17G. Kvernadze
10R. Schmid
7F. Ghedjemis
9A. Raimondo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Frosinone
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Frosinone · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 A | W 4–2 H |
| Juventus | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Venezia | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 AC Milan wins0 draws0 Frosinone wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 Feb 2024Frosinone2–3AC Milan
- 2 Dec 2023AC Milan3–1Frosinone
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Frosinone | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| AC Milan | Frosinone | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 29% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Frosinone | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 6.86 | |
| Match total | 6.14 | 12.43 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 4.14 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| AC Milan | Frosinone | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 6.80 | 11.80 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
AC Milan7 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
9
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Frosinone7 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Frosinone10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
