Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel119 kmRest days3.9 · 7.3Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Inter—%
Draw—%
Genoa—%
Weather (Milano)
Forecast from 14 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Inter and Genoa. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Inter
+1.37
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.73xG against1.36
-
Trend
Inter
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Inter
2.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Genoa
−0.24
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.93xG against1.17
-
Alert
Genoa
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Inter
+1.37
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.73xG against1.36
-
Trend
Inter
2.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Inter
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Alert
Genoa
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Genoa
−0.24
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.93xG against1.17
-
Alert
Inter
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
InterGenoa
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
91
AttackIn forecast
23
73
DefenceIn forecast
44
76
Form indexContext
24
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterGenoa
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
2.67
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
100%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
21.57
ShotsContext
11.14
7.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.86
34%
On target shareContext
26%
15.14
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
70%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
6%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.00
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
2.71
BlocksContext
6.17
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
68%
Save rateContext
61%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
616
PassesContext
380
556
Accurate passesContext
306
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.20
Team ratingContext
6.56
8.14
FoulsContext
9.43
9.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
2.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
100%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
21.00
ShotsContext
10.60
7.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
34%
On target shareContext
25%
14.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
70%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.80
BlocksContext
5.38
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
64%
Save rateContext
60%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
586
PassesContext
395
529
Accurate passesContext
322
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.62
8.70
FoulsContext
9.40
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
WDWLW
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 76 · 10 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Genoa
LDLWL
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel119 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 25 Nov | 7.3Serie A 2026-2027, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 119 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 90 km | 275 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Last XI · not confirmed
1Josep Martínez(G)
95A. Bastoni
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
7P. Zieliński
23N. Barella
11L. de Lima
94F. Esposito
9M. Thuram
Genoa
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
31D. Puczka
32M. Frendrup
71S. Wiafe
77M. Ellertsson
92S. El Shaarawy
10J. Messias
18M. Osmajić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Genoa
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 3.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Genoa · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| AS Roma | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Napoli | W 3–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Inter wins3 draws0 Genoa wins
Goals per game1.75 – 0.63
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 13%
- 28 Feb 2026Inter2–0Genoa
- 14 Dec 2025Genoa1–2Inter
- 22 Feb 2025Inter1–0Genoa
- 17 Aug 2024Genoa2–2Inter
- 4 Mar 2024Inter2–1Genoa
- 29 Dec 2023Genoa1–1Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 4.29 | 2.57 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 43% | |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Inter | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.60 | 2.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.86 | 4.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.43 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 9.29 | 9.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 4.86 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Inter | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.50 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.10 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Inter7 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Genoa7 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 28 · conceded 18
3
4
0-15
3
5
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
9
2
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 6 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
