Serie A Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 29 · 17:30 Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel136 kmRest days4.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Como—%
Draw—%
Juventus—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Como)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Como and Juventus. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

ComoJuventus
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
65 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
72 AttackIn forecast 57
67 DefenceIn forecast 76
50 Form indexContext 74
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Como

Attack—
Defense risk—

Juventus

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ComoJuventus
1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.48
1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.50
-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.19
71% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 43%
21.43 ShotsContext 16.71
6.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.86
32% On target shareContext 35%
13.43 Shots in the boxContext 8.86
62% Box shareContext 53%
8% ConversionContext 8%
2.67 OffsidesContext 3.00
14.71 Shots allowedContext 7.29
3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.71
2.86 BlocksContext 1.83
2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
69% Save rateContext 67%
61% PossessionIn forecast 58%
588 PassesContext 547
527 Accurate passesContext 480
90% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.01 Team ratingContext 6.77
8.29 FoulsContext 12.57
9.57 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.50
1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.61
+0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.30
80% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
19.00 ShotsContext 16.70
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
34% On target shareContext 35%
12.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
63% Box shareContext 60%
12% ConversionContext 11%
3.20 OffsidesContext 2.75
13.60 Shots allowedContext 8.20
3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90
2.70 BlocksContext 1.89
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13
69% Save rateContext 68%
60% PossessionIn forecast 57%
571 PassesContext 532
513 Accurate passesContext 466
90% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.97 Team ratingContext 6.85
9.70 FoulsContext 12.60
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Como
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Fiorentina3–11.8 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Feyenoord2–31.2 xPts
  • D11 OctH · AS Roma0–01.4 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Frosinone0–22.1 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Parma2–12.4 xPts
Juventus
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel136 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Lazio0–32.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Celta Vigo2–11.6 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Cagliari1–11.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Atalanta2–01.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · NEC Nijmegen5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Como Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 24 Nov2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km136 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 42 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Como Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Fiorentina (A) 3–1, 18 Oct
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle 2M. Kempf 99T. Chalobah 28I. Smolčić
7L. da Cunha 6Luis Milla
8M. Caqueret 10N. Paz 30M. Liberali
9A. Douvikas
Juventus Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lazio (H) 0–3, 18 Oct
25G. Vicario(G)
2M. Çelik 26J. Lucumí 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu
29P. Sarr 12Douglas Luiz
17Kerim Alajbegović 22W. McKennie 31N. González
9R. Kolo Muani

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Como Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Juventus Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Como · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.50
Juventus · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Como wins0 draws2 Juventus wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25 Over 2.550% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 25%
  • 21 Feb 2026Juventus0–2Como
  • 19 Oct 2025Como2–0Juventus
  • 7 Feb 2025Como1–2Juventus
  • 19 Aug 2024Juventus3–0Como

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goal timing

Como7 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
1 0-15
4 3 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 46-60
61-75
2 1 76-90
Juventus7 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
0-15
2 1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
1 3 61-75
6 3 76-90
Como10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
5 4 16-30
6 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 61-75
5 2 76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
1 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
8 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.