Bundesliga Gameweek 22 Sat, Feb 20 · 14:30 BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel148 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Draw—%
FSV Mainz 05—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leverkusen)

Forecast from 5 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
79 Current StrengthIn forecast 55
87 AttackIn forecast 68
79 DefenceIn forecast 56
94 Form indexContext 70
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.33
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67
2.19 xGVia Att/Def 2.14
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35
+0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
100% Scored inContext 83%
33% Clean sheetsContext 50%
19.67 ShotsContext 17.83
6.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
31% On target shareContext 34%
13.83 Shots in the boxContext 13.33
71% Box shareContext 76%
14% ConversionContext 13%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.40
11.50 Shots allowedContext 12.50
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
2.67 BlocksContext 4.17
2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60
52% Save rateContext 57%
58% PossessionIn forecast 51%
539 PassesContext 446
470 Accurate passesContext 357
87% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.94
12.33 FoulsContext 13.83
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
2.35 xGVia Att/Def 2.21
1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.01
100% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 40%
18.50 ShotsContext 17.10
6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20
36% On target shareContext 36%
13.30 Shots in the boxContext 12.80
71% Box shareContext 75%
13% ConversionContext 13%
1.89 OffsidesContext 2.22
12.20 Shots allowedContext 12.50
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.10 BlocksContext 3.30
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
63% Save rateContext 58%
58% PossessionIn forecast 48%
537 PassesContext 420
470 Accurate passesContext 337
88% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.94
11.90 FoulsContext 12.80
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km754 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts
FSV Mainz 05
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel148 km65 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayer Leverkusen FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Feb7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km148 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways754 km65 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 51 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick
FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1A. Schwolow(G)
48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci
9P. Tietz 23S. Becker

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FSV Mainz 05 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.33
FSV Mainz 05 · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
3.33
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

6 Bayer Leverkusen wins2 draws2 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game2.40 – 1.60 Over 2.580% Both scored70% Clean sheets30% · 0%
  • 10 Oct 2026FSV Mainz 053–4Bayer Leverkusen
  • 28 Feb 2026Bayer Leverkusen1–1FSV Mainz 05
  • 18 Oct 2025FSV Mainz 053–4Bayer Leverkusen
  • 17 May 2025FSV Mainz 052–2Bayer Leverkusen
  • 14 Jan 2025Bayer Leverkusen1–0FSV Mainz 05
  • 23 Feb 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05Forecast
Scored per game 2.672.33
Conceded per game 1.501.67
Match goals 4.174.00
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 83%67%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 67%50%
Clean sheets 33%50%
Failed to score 0%17%
Games66
Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05Forecast
Scored per game 2.402.20
Conceded per game 1.301.80
Match goals 3.704.00
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 70%70%
Over 3.5 60%60%
Both teams scored 60%60%
Clean sheets 40%40%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05League
Corners
Corners won7.334.83
Corners conceded3.334.00
Match total10.668.8310.72
Over 8.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 9.550% 3/633% 2/6
Over 10.550% 3/617% 1/6
Cards
Cards1.332.33
Opponent cards2.172.00
Match total3.504.333.51
Over 3.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05League
Corners
Corners won6.704.80
Corners conceded3.504.90
Match total10.209.7010.72
Over 8.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 9.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 10.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.201.90
Opponent cards1.801.90
Match total3.003.803.51
Over 3.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayer Leverkusen6 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 1 76-90
FSV Mainz 056 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
4 0-15
3 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 61-75
6 1 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 22 · conceded 18
3 4 0-15
4 16-30
7 2 31-45
2 4 46-60
2 61-75
6 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München FC Augsburg Feb 2014:30 Werder Bremen Borussia Dortmund Feb 2014:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.FC Köln Feb 2014:30 Bayer Leverkusen FSV Mainz 05 Feb 2014:30 Eintracht Frankfurt RB Leipzig Feb 2014:30 VfB Stuttgart SC Paderborn 07 Feb 2014:30 FC Schalke 04 SC Freiburg Feb 2014:30 Hamburger SV 1899 Hoffenheim Feb 2014:30 SV Elversberg Union Berlin Feb 2014:30