FSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
FSV Mainz 05
18th · 12 pts · 18 played
DDDWL
3–1Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
12th · 19 pts · 18 played
WLLWD
Our take
FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. FSV Mainz 05 had 7 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 7 and had to travel 323 km.
Away travel323 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
FSV Mainz 0545%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg29%
FSV Mainz 0545%
Draw27%
VfL Wolfsburg28%
FSV Mainz 0546%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg29%
FSV Mainz 0538%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg36%
FSV Mainz 0545%
Draw27%
VfL Wolfsburg29%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 114
Team strength
FSV Mainz 05VfL Wolfsburg
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
68
AttackIn forecast
50
56
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FSV Mainz 05VfL Wolfsburg
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.11
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
56%
Scored inContext
83%
6%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
10.50
ShotsContext
11.50
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
30%
On target shareContext
37%
8.41
Shots in the boxContext
7.39
73%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.91
15.28
Shots allowedContext
13.89
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.06
4.41
BlocksContext
3.65
3.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
65%
Save rateContext
63%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
368
PassesContext
420
274
Accurate passesContext
340
74%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.06
FoulsContext
10.39
10.39
Fouls sufferedContext
9.67
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.22
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.20
ShotsContext
10.70
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
39%
On target shareContext
46%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
72%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.90
Shots allowedContext
13.10
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.70
BlocksContext
3.33
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
71%
Save rateContext
55%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
346
PassesContext
440
258
Accurate passesContext
359
75%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.20
FoulsContext
9.70
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FSV Mainz 05
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,194 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel323 km960 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FSV Mainz 05 |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 323 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,194 km | 960 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
31D. Kohr
16S. Bell
4S. Posch
30S. Widmer
7J. Lee
6K. Sano
8P. Nebel
21D. da Costa
20P. Tietz
17B. Hollerbach
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
25A. Zehnter
15M. Jenz
3D. Vavro
26S. Kumbedi
5Vinicius Souza
31Y. Gerhardt
9M. Amoura
24C. Eriksen
39P. Wimmer
17D. Pejčinović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FSV Mainz 05-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
FSV Mainz 05 · Home
0.67points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-5
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.33
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
1.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 2.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FSV Mainz 05 | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 A | L 1–8 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–4 A | L 3–4 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 3–4 H | L 1–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 0–4 A | W 1–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 4–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 11 of 51 · 0.65 per game | 18 of 51 · 1.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 FSV Mainz 05 wins3 draws4 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game1.44 – 2.22
Over 2.578%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets11% · 33%
- 31 Aug 2025VfL Wolfsburg1–1FSV Mainz 05
- 19 Apr 2025FSV Mainz 052–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 8 Dec 2024VfL Wolfsburg4–3FSV Mainz 05
- 18 May 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–3FSV Mainz 05
- 13 Jan 2024FSV Mainz 051–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 30 Apr 2023VfL Wolfsburg3–0FSV Mainz 05
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FSV Mainz 05 | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.72 | 2.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 3.61 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 78% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 6% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 17% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 4.30 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FSV Mainz 05 | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 3.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.19 | 10.94 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 8/16 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 8/16 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 6/16 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.28 | 3.61 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 12/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 6/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| FSV Mainz 05 | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.22 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.10 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 114 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.48league 3.78
Red cards0.22league 0.19
Cards 5+50%league 39%
Fouls23.4league 21.2
Penalties0.25league 0.31
Home wins42%league 45%
FSV Mainz 056 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Mar 25A · RB Leipzig2–11
- W1 Dec 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–01
- D11 Nov 23A · SV Darmstadt 980–03
- L30 Apr 23A · VfL Wolfsburg0–33
- L5 Nov 22H · VfL Wolfsburg0–31
VfL Wolfsburg10 with this referee
Record2-1-7
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L21 Sep 25A · Borussia Dortmund0–10
- L25 Aug 24H · Bayern München2–32
- L10 Mar 24A · Bayer Leverkusen0–23
- L7 Oct 23A · VfB Stuttgart1–33
- W30 Apr 23H · FSV Mainz 053–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FSV Mainz 0518 games · scored 18 · conceded 31
1
6
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
11
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg18 games · scored 27 · conceded 38
7
6
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
6
61-75
4
10
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 25
5
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
