FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg – 24 Jan 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 24 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 18th · 12 pts · 18 played DDDWL

3–1Full time

VfL Wolfsburg 12th · 19 pts · 18 played WLLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

FSV Mainz 0545.2%fair odds 2.21

Draw25.7%fair odds 3.89

VfL Wolfsburg29.0%fair odds 3.44

Expected goals1.61 – 1.25total 2.86

Likeliest score1–112.1%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

FSV Mainz 05

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

VfL Wolfsburg

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

FSV Mainz 05 ↓ · VfL Wolfsburg →	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	6.3	6.5	4.5	1.9	0.6	0.1	0.0
1	8.6	12.1	7.2	3.0	0.9	0.2	0.1
2	7.4	9.3	5.8	2.4	0.8	0.2	0.0
3	4.0	5.0	3.1	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
4	1.6	2.0	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
5	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
6+	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FSV Mainz 05 goals, columns VfL Wolfsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

1–112.1%8.25
2–19.3%10.77
1–08.6%11.63
2–07.4%13.47
1–27.2%13.89
0–16.5%15.31
0–06.3%15.81
2–25.8%17.24
3–15.0%20.04
0–24.5%22.40

Winning margin

9.8% FSV Mainz 05 by 3+ fair 10.21

13.9% FSV Mainz 05 by 2 fair 7.22

21.6% FSV Mainz 05 by 1 fair 4.63

25.7% Draw fair 3.89

16.6% VfL Wolfsburg by 1 fair 6.03

8.3% VfL Wolfsburg by 2 fair 12.01

4.1% VfL Wolfsburg by 3+ fair 24.29

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0

15%1

24%2

22%3

16%4

16%5+

FSV Mainz 05 goals

20%0

32%1

26%2

14%3

8%4+

VfL Wolfsburg goals

29%0

36%1

22%2

9%3

4%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

	LOAD90	EloLambda	Change
FSV Mainz 05 win	45.2%	44.8%	+0.4 pp
Draw	25.7%	26.5%	-0.8 pp
VfL Wolfsburg win	29.0%	28.6%	+0.4 pp
Over 2.5	54.5%	51.1%	+3.4 pp
Both teams score	57.7%	55.1%	+2.7 pp
Expected goals FSV Mainz 05	1.61	1.54	+0.08
Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg	1.25	1.18	+0.07

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

FSV Mainz 05 win45.2%2.21
Draw25.7%3.89
VfL Wolfsburg win29.0%3.44
Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw71.0%1.41
Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or VfL Wolfsburg74.3%1.35
Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw54.8%1.83
Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0560.9%1.64
Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg39.1%2.56

Goals

Over 0.593.7%1.07
Over 1.578.5%1.27
Over 2.554.5%1.83
Over 3.532.2%3.11
Over 4.516.2%6.17
Under 1.521.5%4.66
Under 2.545.5%2.20
Under 3.567.8%1.47

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%1.73
No42.3%2.37
Yes and over 2.545.6%2.19
FSV Mainz 05 win and yes22.9%4.37
Draw and yes19.4%5.15
VfL Wolfsburg win and yes15.4%6.48

Team goals

FSV Mainz 05 over 0.580.1%1.25
FSV Mainz 05 over 1.547.9%2.09
FSV Mainz 05 over 2.522.0%4.55
VfL Wolfsburg over 0.571.3%1.40
VfL Wolfsburg over 1.535.5%2.81
VfL Wolfsburg over 2.513.2%7.60
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet28.7%3.49
VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet19.9%5.01
FSV Mainz 05 win to nil22.3%4.48
VfL Wolfsburg win to nil13.6%7.34

Handicap

FSV Mainz 05 −1.523.6%4.23
FSV Mainz 05 −2.59.8%10.21
VfL Wolfsburg +1.576.4%1.31
VfL Wolfsburg +2.590.2%1.11
VfL Wolfsburg −1.512.4%8.03
FSV Mainz 05 +1.587.6%1.14

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored160 Favourite won55.0% Avg chance given to result42.9% 1X2 Brier0.562 Over 2.5 called right62.5% BTTS called right56.9%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chance	Matches	Predicted	Actually won
30–40%	25	38.2%	44.0%
40–50%	49	45.1%	38.8%
50–60%	42	55.0%	57.1%
60–70%	25	65.1%	76.0%
70–80%	13	74.3%	76.9%
80%+	6	86.1%	83.3%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 140 of 160 scored matches.

	LOAD90	Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)	0.5531	0.5458
Avg chance given to result	43.4%	43.3%
Favourite won	56.4%	55.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 140 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 160 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.