Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fulham. Fulham had 7 days of rest, Aston Villa 5.9 and had to travel 163 km.
Away travel163 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Fulham38%
Draw25%
Aston Villa37%
Fulham31%
Draw27%
Aston Villa42%
Fulham38%
Draw25%
Aston Villa36%
Fulham30%
Draw25%
Aston Villa45%
Fulham37%
Draw26%
Aston Villa37%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 200
Team strength
Fulham
Aston Villa
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
85
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
66
AttackIn forecast
83
68
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamAston Villa
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.42
1.39
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.24
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
73%
Scored inContext
73%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.48
ShotsContext
12.85
3.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
29%
On target shareContext
35%
8.72
Shots in the boxContext
8.31
68%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.85
11.88
Shots allowedContext
12.73
3.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.64
BlocksContext
3.91
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
70%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
476
PassesContext
451
399
Accurate passesContext
384
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.76
FoulsContext
9.82
9.36
Fouls sufferedContext
12.76
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.52
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
50%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.10
ShotsContext
11.90
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
26%
On target shareContext
37%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
76%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.70
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.20
BlocksContext
3.80
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
480
PassesContext
437
403
Accurate passesContext
374
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.10
FoulsContext
10.40
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km599 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel163 km146 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 599 km | 146 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
3C. Bassey
5J. Andersen
21T. Castagne
16S. Berge
20S. Lukić
19S. Chukwueze
32E. Smith Rowe
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
26L. Bogarde
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Aston Villa+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
1.81points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-5
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.19
Aston Villa · Away
1.44points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-5
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Burnley | W 3–1 HW 3–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| West Ham | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Sunderland | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | W 4–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 AL 4–5 H | W 1–0 H |
| Everton | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Brighton | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 4–3 A |
| Leeds | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 1–4 HW 2–1 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Wolves | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Bournemouth | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Points | 45 of 96 · 1.41 per game | 55 of 96 · 1.72 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Fulham wins0 draws8 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game0.89 – 2.11
Over 2.578%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets11% · 33%
- 28 Sep 2025Aston Villa3–1Fulham
- 3 May 2025Aston Villa1–0Fulham
- 19 Oct 2024Fulham1–3Aston Villa
- 17 Feb 2024Fulham1–2Aston Villa
- 12 Nov 2023Aston Villa3–1Fulham
- 25 Apr 2023Aston Villa1–0Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 | 1.24 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.67 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 48% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 55% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 27% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Fulham | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.30 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.79 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.79 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.58 | 10.25 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 27/33 | 78% 25/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 23/33 | 69% 22/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 16/33 | 50% 16/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.79 | 2.48 | |
| Match total | 3.79 | 4.03 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 19/33 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 15/33 | 39% 13/33 | |
| Fulham | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 9.00 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.30 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.74
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls22.4league 21.5
Penalties0.21league 0.21
Home wins42%league 41%
Fulham9 with this referee
Record5-1-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W24 Jan 26H · Brighton2–11
- W13 Dec 25A · Burnley3–22
- W20 Sep 25H · Brentford3–14
- L14 Apr 25A · Bournemouth0–12
- L2 Apr 24A · Nottingham Forest1–30
Aston Villa13 with this referee
Record7-1-5
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D21 Feb 26H · Leeds1–11
- W21 Dec 25H · Manchester United2–11
- W26 Oct 25H · Manchester City1–01
- W22 Feb 25H · Chelsea2–11
- L24 Aug 24H · Arsenal0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham33 games · scored 43 · conceded 46
6
0-15
2
9
16-30
7
9
31-45
6
12
46-60
9
4
61-75
13
12
76-90
Aston Villa33 games · scored 47 · conceded 41
4
7
0-15
6
3
16-30
9
8
31-45
8
8
46-60
8
7
61-75
12
8
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
