Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel286 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Fulham—%
Draw—%
Everton—%
Weather (London)
Forecast from 16 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Fulham and Everton. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Fulham
+0.31
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.61xG against1.30
-
Insight
Everton
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Everton
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
FulhamEverton
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
66
AttackIn forecast
61
68
DefenceIn forecast
66
42
Form indexContext
50
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamEverton
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.62
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
71%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
14.71
ShotsContext
14.43
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
35%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.83
74%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.14
Shots allowedContext
13.71
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
4.43
BlocksContext
5.00
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
564
PassesContext
433
486
Accurate passesContext
361
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.43
FoulsContext
7.43
8.43
Fouls sufferedContext
13.29
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.61
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.10
ShotsContext
13.40
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
34%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.89
70%
Box shareContext
70%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.11
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.89
BlocksContext
5.44
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
67%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
548
PassesContext
414
472
Accurate passesContext
342
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.60
FoulsContext
9.70
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
LDDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km26 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 5 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
Everton
DDWDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel286 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Apr | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 26 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Last XI · not confirmed
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
3C. Bassey
22D. Affengruber
21T. Castagne
19S. Charles
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
14O. Bobb
7Gonzalo García
Everton
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
4J. Branthwaite
6J. Tarkowski
2A. Maitland-Niles
37J. Garner
45H. Armstrong
10J. Grealish
8K. Dewsbury-Hall
34M. Röhl
11T. Barry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Everton
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Everton · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Ipswich | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 2–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| Chelsea | L 2–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Fulham wins3 draws4 Everton wins
Goals per game1.10 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 7 Feb 2026Fulham1–2Everton
- 8 Nov 2025Everton2–0Fulham
- 10 May 2025Fulham1–3Everton
- 26 Oct 2024Everton1–1Fulham
- 30 Jan 2024Fulham0–0Everton
- 12 Aug 2023Everton0–1Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Fulham | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.43 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.72 | 11.33 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.86 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Fulham | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 11.34 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Fulham7 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
Everton7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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