Liverpool vs Chelsea

Premier League Gameweek 34 Sat, May 1 · 15:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 5th · 12 pts · 7 played WDWLW

VS— Compare

Chelsea 4th · 13 pts · 7 played LDLWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel286 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Liverpool—%

Draw—%

Chelsea—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Liverpool)

Forecast from 16 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Liverpool

Chelsea

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

85 AttackIn forecast 77

84 DefenceIn forecast 74

87 Form indexContext 69

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Chelsea

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.43

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +1.00

71% Scored inContext 86%

43% Clean sheetsContext 14%

15.71 ShotsContext 14.29

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.57

32% On target shareContext 39%

8.71 Shots in the boxContext 9.14

55% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 17%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.60

11.86 Shots allowedContext 12.43

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.86

3.86 BlocksContext 3.67

2.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.29

67% Save rateContext 73%

56% PossessionIn forecast 47%

482 PassesContext 432

408 Accurate passesContext 361

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.09

13.86 FoulsContext 9.29

10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 11.71

2.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.90

80% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.40 ShotsContext 12.30

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

33% On target shareContext 40%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

62% Box shareContext 60%

10% ConversionContext 17%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.50 Shots allowedContext 12.50

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.20 BlocksContext 3.44

2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

62% Save rateContext 74%

56% PossessionIn forecast 48%

487 PassesContext 442

417 Accurate passesContext 370

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.99 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.10 FoulsContext 10.50

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool DWLWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km471 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected

W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts

Chelsea LDLWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel286 km143 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected

W17 OctA · Everton2–01.3 xPts
W10 OctH · Bournemouth5–11.5 xPts
L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Apr	7Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	471 km	143 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo

8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister

29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz

9A. Isak

Chelsea Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Everton (A) 2–0, 17 Oct

1E. Martínez(G)

21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong

14J. Henderson 25M. Caicedo

17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

9João Pedro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Chelsea Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 0.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Chelsea · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Chelsea
Brentford	W 2–1 A	L 0–3 A
Bournemouth	W 1–0 A	W 5–1 H
Fulham	D 0–0 H	W 3–2 A
Points	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Liverpool wins6 draws2 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.20 Over 2.550% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 20%

9 May 2026Liverpool1–1Chelsea
4 Oct 2025Chelsea2–1Liverpool
4 May 2025Chelsea3–1Liverpool
20 Oct 2024Liverpool2–1Chelsea
31 Jan 2024Liverpool4–1Chelsea
13 Aug 2023Chelsea1–1Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Chelsea
Scored per game	1.29	2.43
Conceded per game	1.14	1.86
Match goals	2.43	4.29
Over 1.5	71%	100%
Over 2.5	57%	86%
Over 3.5	29%	57%
Both teams scored	43%	71%
Clean sheets	43%	14%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	7	7

	Liverpool	Chelsea
Scored per game	1.80	2.10
Conceded per game	1.30	1.70
Match goals	3.10	3.80
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	80%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	80%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	5.86
Corners conceded	4.43	5.43
Match total	9.29	11.29	9.49
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	2.71	1.86
Opponent cards	2.43	3.00
Match total	5.14	4.86	4.17
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	86% 6/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7

	Liverpool	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	4.80
Corners conceded	4.10	5.30
Match total	10.70	10.10	9.49
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.60
Opponent cards	2.20	3.10
Match total	4.40	5.70	4.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.