Premier League Gameweek 34 Sat, May 1 · 15:00 Selhurst Park, London
Crystal Palace 14th · 7 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Aston Villa 12th · 8 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel163 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Crystal Palace—%
Draw—%
Aston Villa—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 16 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Crystal Palace and Aston Villa. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Crystal PalaceAston Villa
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 82
64 AttackIn forecast 83
54 DefenceIn forecast 78
64 Form indexContext 84
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—
Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal PalaceAston Villa
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57
1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
57% Scored inContext 57%
14% Clean sheetsContext 29%
10.14 ShotsContext 11.86
3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40
37% On target shareContext 27%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
70% Box shareContext 64%
13% ConversionContext 8%
3.00 OffsidesContext 1.75
17.86 Shots allowedContext 15.86
6.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
5.29 BlocksContext 3.83
3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14
61% Save rateContext 71%
43% PossessionIn forecast 48%
404 PassesContext 410
326 Accurate passesContext 339
81% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.72
10.00 FoulsContext 10.71
10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
70% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.00 ShotsContext 13.60
3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88
36% On target shareContext 35%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
71% Box shareContext 65%
15% ConversionContext 13%
2.50 OffsidesContext 1.57
16.30 Shots allowedContext 15.60
5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
4.70 BlocksContext 4.22
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
63% Save rateContext 73%
45% PossessionIn forecast 46%
416 PassesContext 404
341 Accurate passesContext 340
82% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.91
10.50 FoulsContext 10.50
9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,047 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Brighton0–50.6 xPts
  • L15 OctA · Lyon2–31.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Nottingham Forest3–11.4 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Leeds0–00.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
Aston Villa
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel163 km325 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Newcastle1–01.6 xPts
  • W14 OctH · Fenerbahce6–02.0 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Tottenham3–21.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Nottingham Forest1–21.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Crystal Palace Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Apr7Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km163 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,047 km325 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Brighton (A) 0–5, 18 Oct
44W. Benítez(G)
21H. Ahanor 26Chris Richards 6J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell 23Q. Timber 20A. Wharton 25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen
Aston Villa Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Newcastle (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka 5T. Mings 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash
35João Gomes 8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía 44J. Manzambi 47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Crystal Palace Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Aston Villa Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.67
Aston Villa · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentCrystal PalaceAston Villa
Brighton L 0–5 A L 0–4 A
Nottingham Forest W 3–1 H L 1–2 H
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Crystal Palace wins3 draws3 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.10 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 20%
  • 7 Jan 2026Crystal Palace0–0Aston Villa
  • 31 Aug 2025Aston Villa0–3Crystal Palace
  • 25 Feb 2025Crystal Palace4–1Aston Villa
  • 23 Nov 2024Aston Villa2–2Crystal Palace
  • 19 May 2024Crystal Palace5–0Aston Villa
  • 16 Sep 2023Aston Villa3–1Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Crystal PalaceAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 1.291.00
Conceded per game 2.431.57
Match goals 3.712.57
Over 1.5 86%57%
Over 2.5 71%57%
Over 3.5 71%43%
Both teams scored 57%43%
Clean sheets 14%29%
Failed to score 43%43%
Games77
Crystal PalaceAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 1.601.80
Conceded per game 2.201.40
Match goals 3.803.20
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 70%50%
Both teams scored 60%50%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Crystal PalaceAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.673.14
Corners conceded6.004.29
Match total9.677.439.49
Over 8.550% 3/629% 2/7
Over 9.533% 2/614% 1/7
Over 10.533% 2/614% 1/7
Cards
Cards1.432.14
Opponent cards1.573.14
Match total3.005.284.17
Over 3.543% 3/771% 5/7
Over 4.529% 2/757% 4/7
Crystal PalaceAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.894.00
Corners conceded5.225.00
Match total9.119.009.49
Over 8.544% 4/950% 5/10
Over 9.533% 3/930% 3/10
Over 10.533% 3/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.601.80
Opponent cards2.002.80
Match total3.604.604.17
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Crystal Palace7 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 5 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Aston Villa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
2 6 0-15
1 2 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
3 4 76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
1 4 16-30
5 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
5 1 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Fulham Everton May 115:00 Liverpool Chelsea May 115:00 Arsenal Tottenham May 115:00 Manchester City Brentford May 115:00 Brighton Nottingham Forest May 115:00 Crystal Palace Aston Villa May 115:00 Ipswich Leeds May 115:00 Hull City Bournemouth May 115:00 Sunderland Newcastle May 115:00 Coventry Manchester United May 115:00