Ipswich vs Leeds – 1 May 2027

Premier League Gameweek 34 Sat, May 1 · 15:00 Portman Road, Ipswich, Suffolk

Ipswich 10th · 9 pts · 7 played LWLWL

VS— Compare

Leeds 7th · 10 pts · 7 played DWDLD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel265 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Ipswich—%

Draw—%

Leeds—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Ipswich, Suffolk)

Forecast from 16 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Ipswich

Leeds

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

59 AttackIn forecast 69

50 DefenceIn forecast 77

64 Form indexContext 64

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ipswich

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ipswich

Leeds

1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

2.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

2.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

71% Scored inContext 86%

0% Clean sheetsContext 29%

11.00 ShotsContext 12.00

4.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

40% On target shareContext 33%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

66% Box shareContext 65%

14% ConversionContext 11%

2.60 OffsidesContext 2.43

16.86 Shots allowedContext 14.00

5.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

5.00 BlocksContext 5.17

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43

59% Save rateContext 86%

43% PossessionIn forecast 47%

401 PassesContext 385

331 Accurate passesContext 302

83% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.71 FoulsContext 12.71

9.14 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86

1.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.10 ShotsContext 11.50

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

41% On target shareContext 31%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

67% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.40

16.00 Shots allowedContext 14.90

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

5.10 BlocksContext 4.89

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

66% Save rateContext 77%

46% PossessionIn forecast 46%

396 PassesContext 376

323 Accurate passesContext 292

82% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.70 FoulsContext 11.90

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ipswich LWLWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km744 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

L17 OctA · Manchester City2–30.4 xPts
W10 OctH · Fulham2–11.3 xPts
L19 SepA · Everton0–10.8 xPts
W12 SepA · Crystal Palace3–20.8 xPts
L4 SepH · Liverpool0–20.9 xPts

Leeds DWDLD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel265 km540 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected

D18 OctH · Manchester United1–11.6 xPts
L10 OctA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
D20 SepH · Crystal Palace0–01.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Newcastle4–11.7 xPts
D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ipswich	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Apr	7Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	265 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	744 km	540 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ipswich Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester City (A) 2–3, 17 Oct

28C. Walton(G)

24J. Greaves 6I. Diop 26D. O'Shea

3L. Davis 25E. Palacios 12Florentino 42A. Ouattara

10J. Enciso 38D. Maeda

19Emersonn

Leeds Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester United (H) 1–1, 18 Oct

1J. Trafford(G)

5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin

3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle

19N. Okafor 18A. Stach

9D. Calvert-Lewin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ipswich Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Leeds Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Ipswich · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Leeds · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Ipswich	Leeds
Crystal Palace	W 3–2 A	D 0–0 H
Manchester United	L 2–5 A	D 1–1 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	2 of 6 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Ipswich wins0 draws2 Leeds wins

Goals per game1.50 – 4.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

23 Dec 2023Leeds4–0Ipswich
26 Aug 2023Ipswich3–4Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Ipswich	Leeds
Scored per game	1.57	1.29
Conceded per game	2.14	0.86
Match goals	3.71	2.14
Over 1.5	86%	71%
Over 2.5	71%	29%
Over 3.5	43%	14%
Both teams scored	71%	71%
Clean sheets	0%	29%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	7	7

	Ipswich	Leeds
Scored per game	1.57	1.10
Conceded per game	2.14	1.00
Match goals	3.71	2.10
Over 1.5	86%	70%
Over 2.5	71%	30%
Over 3.5	43%	10%
Both teams scored	71%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	29%	20%
Games	7	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ipswich	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	3.29	4.00
Corners conceded	4.86	4.14
Match total	8.15	8.14	9.49
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.86
Opponent cards	2.29	2.43
Match total	4.15	4.29	4.17
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7

	Ipswich	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.10
Corners conceded	4.30	5.70
Match total	8.50	9.80	9.49
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.80
Opponent cards	1.90	2.00
Match total	3.90	3.80	4.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.