Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fulham were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Fulham had 14.1 days of rest, Leeds 13.9 and had to travel 272 km.
Away travel272 kmRest days14.1 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Fulham44%
Draw26%
Leeds31%
Fulham43%
Draw27%
Leeds30%
Fulham44%
Draw26%
Leeds31%
Fulham36%
Draw26%
Leeds38%
Fulham43%
Draw27%
Leeds30%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeCraig Pawson
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 126
Team strength
Fulham
Leeds
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
73
66
AttackIn forecast
69
68
DefenceIn forecast
77
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLeeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamLeeds
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
-0.67
67%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
10.33
ShotsContext
11.33
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
1.67
29%
On target shareContext
15%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
74%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
3%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.00
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
2.67
BlocksContext
3.33
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
77%
Save rateContext
100%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
419
PassesContext
395
346
Accurate passesContext
316
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.57
14.67
FoulsContext
9.00
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
60%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.20
ShotsContext
14.30
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
31%
On target shareContext
34%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
67%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.70
Shots allowedContext
8.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.43
3.30
BlocksContext
3.13
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.57
65%
Save rateContext
92%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
431
PassesContext
536
363
Accurate passesContext
462
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.10
13.00
FoulsContext
8.10
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Leeds
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel272 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.9Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
3C. Bassey
5J. Andersen
2K. Tete
16S. Berge
20S. Lukić
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
8H. Wilson
9Rodrigo Muniz
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
3G. Gudmundsson
5P. Struijk
6J. Rodon
2J. Bogle
18A. Stach
4E. Ampadu
8S. Longstaff
19N. Okafor
9D. Calvert-Lewin
11B. Aaronson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Leeds
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Leeds+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Leeds · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Fulham wins0 draws2 Leeds wins
Goals per game2.25 – 2.25
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 22 Apr 2023Fulham2–1Leeds
- 23 Oct 2022Leeds2–3Fulham
- 19 Mar 2021Fulham1–2Leeds
- 19 Sep 2020Leeds4–3Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Fulham | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 7.67 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Fulham | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.38 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.60 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Craig Pawson 126 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.04league 3.45
Red cards0.11league 0.10
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls22.8league 22.3
Penalties0.23league 0.32
Home wins42%league 52%
Fulham5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L14 Jan 25A · West Ham2–33
- L21 Apr 24H · Liverpool1–33
- L15 May 21A · Southampton1–31
- D18 Apr 21A · Arsenal1–13
- D27 Jan 21A · Brighton0–01
Leeds6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.3.2 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W23 Feb 24H · Leicester3–15
- L17 Apr 23H · Liverpool1–60
- L26 Feb 22H · Tottenham0–44
- D27 Nov 21A · Brighton0–03
- L12 Sep 21H · Liverpool0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham3 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Leeds3 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
5
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
