Genk vs Dinamo Zagreb – 26 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 26 · 20:00 Cegeka Arena, Genk

Genk 3rd · 3 pts · 1 played W

First leg3–1 3–3Full time

Dinamo Zagreb 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Genk were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Genk. Genk had 4.3 days of rest, Dinamo Zagreb 7.1 and had to travel 961 km.

Away travel961 kmRest days4.3 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1

Genk49%

Draw25%

Dinamo Zagreb27%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.25

Genk41%

Draw27%

Dinamo Zagreb32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.24

Genk48%

Draw25%

Dinamo Zagreb27%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.25

Genk41%

Draw26%

Dinamo Zagreb34%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.40

Genk48%

Draw25%

Dinamo Zagreb27%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.21

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Genk)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 121

Team strength

Genk

Dinamo Zagreb

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 43

46 AttackIn forecast 33

50 DefenceIn forecast 44

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genk

Attack—

Defense risk—

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genk

Dinamo Zagreb

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

90% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.60 ShotsContext 9.90

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.89

43% On target shareContext 35%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.56

68% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 15%

3.17 OffsidesContext 2.13

12.40 Shots allowedContext 10.30

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.40 BlocksContext 2.67

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

72% Save rateContext 60%

55% PossessionIn forecast 49%

495 PassesContext 453

419 Accurate passesContext 380

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.77

9.20 FoulsContext 9.90

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genk

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,066 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Dinamo Zagreb

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel961 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genk	Dinamo Zagreb
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Feb	7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	961 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,066 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.7	144.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genk Confirmed XI

4-4-2

26T. Lawal(G)

18J. Kayembe 6M. Smets 3Mujaid Sadick 77Z. El Ouahdi

14Y. Sor 21I. Bangoura 8B. Heynen 10J. Ito

29Robin Mirisola 38D. Heymans

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Dinamo Zagreb Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40D. Livaković(G)

3B. Goda 26S. McKenna 15N. Galešić 25Moris Valinčić

8M. Zajc 27J. Mišić 7L. Stojković

10G. Vidović 71M. Bakrar 30F. Topić

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genk Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genk+0.8 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Dinamo Zagreb-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Genk · Home No home games yet this season.

Dinamo Zagreb · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Genk wins0 draws0 Dinamo Zagreb wins

Goals per game3.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

19 Feb 2026Dinamo Zagreb1–3Genk

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genk	Dinamo Zagreb	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	3.00
Match goals	4.00	4.00	3.01
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	58%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Genk	Dinamo Zagreb	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.44
Conceded per game	1.60	2.11
Match goals	3.50	3.56	3.01
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	78%	58%
Over 3.5	30%	67%
Both teams scored	70%	67%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	10%	33%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genk	Dinamo Zagreb	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.00
Corners conceded	3.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	6.00	10.55
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	0.00
Match total	2.00	2.00	4.00
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Genk	Dinamo Zagreb	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	4.40
Corners conceded	4.00	4.20
Match total	9.22	8.60	10.55
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.60
Opponent cards	1.40	1.80
Match total	2.70	3.40	4.00
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 121 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.69league 4.00

Red cards0.15league 0.08

Cards 5+54%league 42%

Fouls21.7league 23.3

Penalties0.31league 0.00

Home wins45%league 17%

Genk

No previous matches with this referee.

Dinamo Zagreb1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D10 Dec 24H · Celtic0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.