Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 26). Absences weigh more on Malmo FF. Genk had 4.2 days of rest, Malmo FF 7.1 and had to travel 717 km.
Away travel717 kmRest days4.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
Genk54%
Draw24%
Malmo FF22%
Genk51%
Draw26%
Malmo FF24%
Genk53%
Draw25%
Malmo FF23%
Genk47%
Draw26%
Malmo FF28%
Genk53%
Draw25%
Malmo FF23%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
Referee · RomaniaHoratiu Fesnic
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 6
Team strength
Genk
Malmo FF
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
46
AttackIn forecast
24
50
DefenceIn forecast
20
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMalmo FF
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkMalmo FF
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.43
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.54
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.01
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
57%
Scored inContext
43%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.29
ShotsContext
6.71
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
41%
On target shareContext
30%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
4.83
63%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.71
Shots allowedContext
16.86
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.86
4.17
BlocksContext
4.33
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
79%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
426
PassesContext
397
357
Accurate passesContext
321
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.60
11.57
FoulsContext
10.86
12.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.43
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.54
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.01
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.50
ShotsContext
7.80
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
42%
On target shareContext
36%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
60%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.90
Shots allowedContext
15.10
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.20
BlocksContext
4.11
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
67%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
504
PassesContext
404
428
Accurate passesContext
328
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.57
11.30
FoulsContext
11.10
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km547 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Malmo FF
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel717 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Malmo FF |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 717 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 547 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
19Y. Medina
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
38D. Heymans
21I. Bangoura
8B. Heynen
10J. Ito
9H. Oh
7J. Steuckers
Malmo FF
Confirmed XI
33M. Ellborg(G)
48Theodor Lundbergh
44M. Pålsson
19C. Rösler
2O. Karlsson
8A. Sigurðsson
23L. Berg Johnsen
40K. Busuladžić
22T. Ali
32D. Guðjohnsen
10A. Christiansen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Malmo FF
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Malmo FF-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Malmo FF · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Malmo FF | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.29 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 43% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 57% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Genk | Malmo FF | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.29 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 57% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 43% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 57% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Malmo FF | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.86 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 7.15 | 8.40 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 4.72 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Genk | Malmo FF | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.63 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.50 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Horatiu Fesnic Romania · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.83league 4.13
Red cards0.33league 0.21
Cards 5+67%league 42%
Fouls33.2league 24.2
Penalties0.50league 0.36
Home wins67%league 51%
GenkNo previous matches with this referee.
Malmo FFNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Malmo FF7 games · scored 3 · conceded 13
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
Malmo FF10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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