Genoa vs Atalanta – 21 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 21 · 19:45 Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova

Genoa 16th · 14 pts · 15 played DDWWL

0–1Full time

Atalanta 13th · 19 pts · 15 played LLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were slight favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 31). Genoa had 7.1 days of rest, Atalanta 8 and had to travel 154 km.

Away travel154 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Genoa24%

Draw26%

Atalanta50%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.59

Genoa24%

Draw26%

Atalanta50%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.66

Genoa24%

Draw27%

Atalanta50%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.55

Genoa19%

Draw24%

Atalanta57%

Expected goals 0.92 – 1.78

Genoa24%

Draw25%

Atalanta50%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.70

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Genova)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 46

Team strength

Genoa

Atalanta

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

23 AttackIn forecast 48

44 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genoa

Atalanta

1.07 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.27

1.53 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

67% Scored inContext 80%

13% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.07 ShotsContext 14.87

3.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

36% On target shareContext 31%

6.87 Shots in the boxContext 9.53

61% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.20

11.73 Shots allowedContext 10.47

4.92 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.33 BlocksContext 2.93

3.15 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.31

64% Save rateContext 74%

48% PossessionIn forecast 57%

359 PassesContext 497

283 Accurate passesContext 427

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.88

14.00 FoulsContext 9.93

14.87 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.47

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.80 ShotsContext 14.00

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

36% On target shareContext 31%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

61% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.38

12.00 Shots allowedContext 10.00

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

4.13 BlocksContext 2.90

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

67% Save rateContext 68%

46% PossessionIn forecast 57%

346 PassesContext 502

273 Accurate passesContext 431

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.86

13.30 FoulsContext 9.80

15.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genoa

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km767 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atalanta

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel154 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genoa	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Dec	8Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	154 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	767 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genoa Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1N. Leali(G)

22J. Vásquez 34S. Otoa 27A. Marcandalli

3Aarón Martín 77M. Ellertsson 32M. Frendrup 17R. Malinovskyi 15B. Norton-Cuffy

18C. Ekuban 9Vítinha

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 4I. Hien 15M. de Roon

47L. Bernasconi 13Éderson 6Y. Musah 77D. Zappacosta

70D. Maldini 17C. De Ketelaere

9G. Scamacca

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genoa Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atalanta Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genoa+0.4 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Atalanta+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Genoa · Home 0.75points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-4
Scored: 0.63
Conceded: 1.38

Atalanta · Away 0.86points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-3
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.43

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 13 this season

Opponent	Genoa	Atalanta
Udinese	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
Verona	W 2–1 H	L 1–3 A
Cagliari	D 3–3 A	W 2–1 H
Fiorentina	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 H
Sassuolo	W 2–1 A	L 0–3 H
Cremonese	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 A
Torino	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 A
Parma	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Napoli	L 1–2 A	L 1–3 A
Lazio	L 0–3 H	D 0–0 H
Como	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Juventus	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Lecce	D 0–0 H	W 4–1 H
Points	14 of 39 · 1.08 per game	17 of 39 · 1.31 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Genoa wins2 draws4 Atalanta wins

Goals per game0.67 – 2.33 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 50%

17 May 2025Genoa2–3Atalanta
5 Oct 2024Atalanta5–1Genoa
11 Feb 2024Genoa1–4Atalanta
22 Oct 2023Atalanta2–0Genoa
13 Mar 2022Atalanta0–0Genoa
21 Dec 2021Genoa0–0Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genoa	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.07	1.27
Conceded per game	1.53	1.20
Match goals	2.60	2.47	2.61
Over 1.5	80%	87%
Over 2.5	67%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	13%	20%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	52%
Clean sheets	13%	20%
Failed to score	33%	20%
Games	15	15

	Genoa	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.90
Conceded per game	1.60	1.40
Match goals	3.00	2.30	2.61
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genoa	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	3.18	5.86
Corners conceded	5.36	3.79
Match total	8.54	9.65	8.74
Over 8.5	55% 6/11	64% 9/14
Over 9.5	45% 5/11	43% 6/14
Over 10.5	9% 1/11	29% 4/14
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.53
Opponent cards	2.40	1.47
Match total	4.80	3.00	4.04
Over 3.5	87% 13/15	47% 7/15
Over 4.5	47% 7/15	0% 0/15

	Genoa	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	4.50
Corners conceded	5.00	4.00
Match total	8.50	8.50	8.74
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.20
Opponent cards	2.50	1.70
Match total	4.50	2.90	4.04
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 46 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.30league 3.91

Red cards0.28league 0.17

Cards 5+50%league 39%

Fouls25.2league 26.0

Penalties0.37league 0.32

Home wins28%league 40%

Genoa3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L29 Oct 25H · Cremonese0–23
D13 Mar 22A · Atalanta0–00
D5 Feb 22A · AS Roma0–03

Atalanta5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6 Pens for · against3 · 2 Reds1

L23 Oct 22H · Lazio0–24
L21 May 22H · Empoli0–11
D27 Apr 22H · Torino4–42
D13 Mar 22H · Genoa0–02
W20 Nov 21H · Spezia5–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.