Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were slight favourites.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 29). Genoa had 5.9 days of rest, Fiorentina 7 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 3
Genoa31%
Draw28%
Fiorentina41%
Genoa32%
Draw27%
Fiorentina41%
Genoa31%
Draw28%
Fiorentina41%
Genoa25%
Draw27%
Fiorentina48%
Genoa32%
Draw27%
Fiorentina41%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 70
Team strength
Genoa
Fiorentina
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
23
AttackIn forecast
42
44
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaFiorentina
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.50
Goals minus xGContext
-0.58
50%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.10
ShotsContext
11.70
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.70
29%
On target shareContext
23%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
55%
Box shareContext
59%
5%
ConversionContext
6%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.67
10.60
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.00
BlocksContext
2.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
63%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
371
PassesContext
376
291
Accurate passesContext
307
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.68
14.30
FoulsContext
13.70
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.90
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.50
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.10
ShotsContext
12.00
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
29%
On target shareContext
28%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
55%
Box shareContext
62%
5%
ConversionContext
9%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.80
10.60
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.00
BlocksContext
2.90
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
63%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
371
PassesContext
389
291
Accurate passesContext
316
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.30
FoulsContext
14.00
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
17.00
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fiorentina
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel197 km496 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Nov | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 275 km | 496 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 13.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
2M. Thorsby
32M. Frendrup
77M. Ellertsson
15B. Norton-Cuffy
9Vítinha
29L. Colombo
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
6L. Ranieri
18Pablo Marí
5M. Pongračić
29N. Fortini
7S. Sohm
14H. Nicolussi
8R. Mandragora
2Dodô
10A. Guðmundsson
91R. Piccoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fiorentina+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
0.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.20
Fiorentina · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-2
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Napoli | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Bologna | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Como | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Genoa wins1 draws5 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 2 Feb 2025Fiorentina2–1Genoa
- 31 Oct 2024Genoa0–1Fiorentina
- 15 Apr 2024Fiorentina1–1Genoa
- 19 Aug 2023Genoa1–4Fiorentina
- 17 Jan 2022Fiorentina6–0Genoa
- 18 Sep 2021Genoa1–2Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.30 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Genoa | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.30 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 8.70 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.10 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Genoa | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 7.89 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.30 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.88
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls24.0league 25.8
Penalties0.37league 0.29
Home wins43%league 36%
Genoa5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D15 Dec 24A · AC Milan0–02
- W4 Nov 24A · Parma1–05
- W22 Dec 23A · Sassuolo2–11
- L5 Nov 23A · Cagliari1–22
- L9 Jan 22H · Spezia0–13
Fiorentina4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W26 Feb 24H · Lazio2–10
- D17 Apr 23H · Atalanta1–11
- W9 May 22H · AS Roma2–03
- W20 Nov 21H · AC Milan4–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
2
76-90
Fiorentina9 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
2
76-90
Fiorentina9 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
