Genoa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genoa31.0%fair odds 3.23
Draw28.4%fair odds 3.52
Fiorentina40.6%fair odds 2.46
Expected goals1.13 – 1.33total 2.47
Likeliest score1–113.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fiorentina
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genoa ↓ · Fiorentina → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 13.5 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genoa goals, columns Fiorentina goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%7.41
- 0–110.6%9.40
- 0–09.2%10.92
- 1–08.9%11.20
- 1–28.6%11.69
- 0–27.6%13.24
- 2–17.3%13.77
- 2–05.4%18.38
- 2–24.8%20.63
- 1–33.8%26.27
Winning margin
3.9%
Genoa by 3+
fair 25.32
8.8%
Genoa by 2
fair 11.42
18.3%
Genoa by 1
fair 5.47
28.4%
Draw
fair 3.52
21.6%
Fiorentina by 1
fair 4.62
12.2%
Fiorentina by 2
fair 8.23
6.8%
Fiorentina by 3+
fair 14.64
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Genoa goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Fiorentina goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa win | 31.0% | 31.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.0% | +1.4 pp |
| Fiorentina win | 40.6% | 41.4% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.8% | 50.4% | -5.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.6% | 55.0% | -4.4 pp |
| Expected goals Genoa | 1.13 | 1.24 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Fiorentina | 1.33 | 1.45 | -0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genoa win31.0%3.23
- Draw28.4%3.52
- Fiorentina win40.6%2.46
- Double chance Genoa or draw59.4%1.68
- Double chance Genoa or Fiorentina71.6%1.40
- Double chance Fiorentina or draw69.0%1.45
- Draw no bet Genoa43.3%2.31
- Draw no bet Fiorentina56.7%1.76
Goals
- Over 0.590.8%1.10
- Over 1.571.3%1.40
- Over 2.544.8%2.23
- Over 3.523.6%4.24
- Over 4.510.5%9.56
- Under 1.528.7%3.48
- Under 2.555.2%1.81
- Under 3.576.4%1.31
Both teams to score
- Yes50.6%1.97
- No49.4%2.03
- Yes and over 2.537.1%2.69
- Genoa win and yes13.8%7.24
- Draw and yes19.2%5.20
- Fiorentina win and yes17.6%5.69
Team goals
- Genoa over 0.567.8%1.47
- Genoa over 1.531.3%3.19
- Genoa over 2.510.6%9.40
- Fiorentina over 0.573.7%1.36
- Fiorentina over 1.538.5%2.59
- Fiorentina over 2.515.1%6.62
- Genoa clean sheet26.3%3.80
- Fiorentina clean sheet32.2%3.11
- Genoa win to nil17.2%5.83
- Fiorentina win to nil23.0%4.34
Handicap
- Genoa −1.512.7%7.87
- Genoa −2.53.9%25.32
- Fiorentina +1.587.3%1.15
- Fiorentina +2.596.1%1.04
- Fiorentina −1.519.0%5.27
- Genoa +1.581.0%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored106
Favourite won46.2%
Avg chance given to result38.9%
1X2 Brier0.639
Over 2.5 called right59.4%
BTTS called right47.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 37.8% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 34 | 44.4% | 38.2% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 54.2% | 32.0% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 63.8% | 64.7% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 73.0% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 85 of 106 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6379 | 0.6173 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.5% | 39.1% |
| Favourite won | 44.7% | 44.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 85 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 106 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.