Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genoa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Genoa had 13.9 days of rest, Parma 15 and had to travel 118 km.
Away travel118 kmRest days13.9 · 15Matches / 14d1 · 0
Genoa44%
Draw28%
Parma28%
Genoa44%
Draw27%
Parma29%
Genoa43%
Draw29%
Parma29%
Genoa37%
Draw29%
Parma35%
Genoa45%
Draw26%
Parma29%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 77
Team strength
Genoa
Parma
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
23
AttackIn forecast
20
44
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaParma
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
-0.49
Goals minus xGContext
-0.53
50%
Scored inContext
33%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.00
ShotsContext
11.17
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.83
33%
On target shareContext
25%
5.17
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
53%
Box shareContext
56%
6%
ConversionContext
5%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.33
Shots allowedContext
12.33
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.40
BlocksContext
4.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
58%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
360
PassesContext
348
279
Accurate passesContext
276
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.72
15.17
FoulsContext
11.67
13.83
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
3.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
70%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.90
ShotsContext
10.40
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
36%
On target shareContext
33%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
61%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.17
OffsidesContext
1.25
12.60
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.00
BlocksContext
4.10
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
65%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
358
PassesContext
338
279
Accurate passesContext
264
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.78
15.10
FoulsContext
12.10
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel118 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 15Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 118 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,176 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
77M. Ellertsson
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
20S. Sabelli
32M. Frendrup
73P. Masini
9Vítinha
17R. Malinovskyi
15B. Norton-Cuffy
18C. Ekuban
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
3A. Ndiaye
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
27Sascha Britschgi
8N. Estévez
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
11P. Almqvist
9Mateo Pellegrino
32P. Cutrone
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Parma-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Parma · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Genoa wins0 draws0 Parma wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 12 Jan 2025Genoa1–0Parma
- 4 Nov 2024Parma0–1Genoa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Genoa | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.25 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 8.17 | 9.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.17 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 5.17 | 3.67 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Genoa | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.33 | 9.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.60 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.69
Red cards0.14league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 35%
Fouls24.9league 26.4
Penalties0.45league 0.23
Home wins36%league 38%
Genoa3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
- D24 Nov 24H · Cagliari2–22
- W6 May 22H · Juventus2–12
- D26 Oct 21A · Spezia1–14
Parma2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L31 Jan 25H · Lecce1–31
- L15 Dec 24H · Verona2–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa6 games · scored 3 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
Parma6 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
7
61-75
2
4
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
0-15
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
