Gent
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Gent
8th · 26 pts · 20 played
LDLLW
First leg0–1
4–2Full time
Anderlecht
4th · 35 pts · 20 played
WLWDL
Gent36.9%fair odds 2.71
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.67
Anderlecht35.9%fair odds 2.79
Expected goals1.35 – 1.33total 2.68
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Anderlecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Gent ↓ · Anderlecht → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Gent goals, columns Anderlecht goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.72
- 1–08.6%11.63
- 0–18.4%11.85
- 2–18.3%12.02
- 1–28.2%12.22
- 0–07.5%13.35
- 2–06.3%15.99
- 0–26.0%16.53
- 2–25.5%18.07
- 3–13.8%26.66
Winning margin
6.1%
Gent by 3+
fair 16.31
11.0%
Gent by 2
fair 9.12
19.8%
Gent by 1
fair 5.05
27.2%
Draw
fair 3.67
19.5%
Anderlecht by 1
fair 5.13
10.6%
Anderlecht by 2
fair 9.44
5.8%
Anderlecht by 3+
fair 17.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Gent goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Anderlecht goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 36.9% | 37.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.3% | -0.0 pp |
| Anderlecht win | 35.9% | 35.5% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 50.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.2% | 55.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Gent | 1.35 | 1.36 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Anderlecht | 1.33 | 1.32 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Gent win36.9%2.71
- Draw27.2%3.67
- Anderlecht win35.9%2.79
- Double chance Gent or draw64.1%1.56
- Double chance Gent or Anderlecht72.8%1.37
- Double chance Anderlecht or draw63.1%1.59
- Draw no bet Gent50.7%1.97
- Draw no bet Anderlecht49.3%2.03
Goals
- Over 0.592.5%1.08
- Over 1.575.5%1.32
- Over 2.550.2%1.99
- Over 3.528.2%3.54
- Over 4.513.5%7.43
- Under 1.524.5%4.08
- Under 2.549.8%2.01
- Under 3.571.8%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes55.2%1.81
- No44.8%2.23
- Yes and over 2.542.2%2.37
- Gent win and yes18.0%5.57
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Anderlecht win and yes17.5%5.71
Team goals
- Gent over 0.574.1%1.35
- Gent over 1.539.2%2.55
- Gent over 2.515.5%6.44
- Anderlecht over 0.573.6%1.36
- Anderlecht over 1.538.4%2.61
- Anderlecht over 2.515.0%6.67
- Gent clean sheet26.4%3.78
- Anderlecht clean sheet25.9%3.87
- Gent win to nil19.0%5.28
- Anderlecht win to nil18.4%5.44
Handicap
- Gent −1.517.1%5.85
- Gent −2.56.1%16.31
- Anderlecht +1.582.9%1.21
- Anderlecht +2.593.9%1.07
- Anderlecht −1.516.4%6.10
- Gent +1.583.6%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored164
Favourite won43.9%
Avg chance given to result37.4%
1X2 Brier0.632
Over 2.5 called right53.0%
BTTS called right53.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 29 | 38.2% | 34.5% |
| 40–50% | 82 | 44.9% | 34.1% |
| 50–60% | 35 | 54.6% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 64.5% | 78.6% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 126 of 164 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6394 | 0.6375 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.2% | 37.8% |
| Favourite won | 42.9% | 41.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 126 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 1–0 KV Mechelen58·23·18
- ✗KVC Westerlo 0–2 Cercle Brugge45·27·28
- ✓Zulte Waregem 2–1 Genk37·27·36
- ✗Club Brugge KV 2–3 RAAL La Louvière71·19·11
- ✓Gent 2–0 KVC Westerlo49·26·25
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 Dender55·25·20
- ✗RAAL La Louvière 0–0 OH Leuven45·28·28
- ✓Antwerp 2–1 Zulte Waregem52·25·22
- ✗Anderlecht 1–2 Charleroi62·22·16
- ✗Standard Liege 1–2 St. Truiden39·27·34
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 164 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.