Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gent
8th · 26 pts · 20 played
LDLLW
First leg0–1
4–2Full time
Anderlecht
4th · 35 pts · 20 played
WLWDL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 35). Gent had 21.7 days of rest, Anderlecht 22.7 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days21.7 · 22.7Matches / 14d0 · 0
Gent37%
Draw27%
Anderlecht36%
Gent37%
Draw27%
Anderlecht36%
Gent37%
Draw27%
Anderlecht36%
Gent30%
Draw27%
Anderlecht43%
Gent37%
Draw27%
Anderlecht36%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 43
Team strength
GentAnderlecht
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
46
AttackIn forecast
37
61
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentAnderlecht
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
80%
Scored inContext
80%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.60
ShotsContext
14.80
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
34%
On target shareContext
32%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.75
63%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.19
13.95
Shots allowedContext
11.35
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.65
4.24
BlocksContext
2.90
3.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.47
77%
Save rateContext
65%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
449
PassesContext
434
369
Accurate passesContext
352
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.70
FoulsContext
12.95
10.45
Fouls sufferedContext
11.25
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.50
ShotsContext
14.70
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
30%
On target shareContext
29%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
61%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.63
14.60
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.90
BlocksContext
2.90
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
74%
Save rateContext
66%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
421
PassesContext
419
342
Accurate passesContext
339
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.50
FoulsContext
11.90
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest21.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest22.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel50 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 22.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.3 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
57Matties Volckaert
22Leonardo Lopes
15A. Ito
8M. Skóraś
24H. Hong
37A. Kadri
7A. Kanga
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
55M. Kana
15M. Ilić
54K. Sardella
13N. Saliba
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
83T. Degreef
9M. CvetkoviÄ
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
1.70points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 1.00
Anderlecht · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Gent | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Standard Liege | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–4 A | L 2–3 H |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 4–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Dender | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 26 of 57 · 1.37 per game | 32 of 57 · 1.68 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Gent wins1 draws2 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 23 Sep 2025Anderlecht1–0Gent
- 4 Feb 2024Anderlecht1–0Gent
- 12 Nov 2023Gent1–1Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 2.50 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 45% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Gent | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.85 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.10 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 10/18 | 80% 16/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 7/18 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.65 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.65 | 5.05 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 9/20 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 8/20 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Gent | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 10.80 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.90 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.07league 3.81
Red cards0.37league 0.20
Cards 5+65%league 40%
Fouls23.0league 22.8
Penalties0.14league 0.29
Home wins40%league 41%
Gent4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L30 Nov 25H · St. Truiden1–22
- W3 Oct 25H · Charleroi2–12
- W14 Sep 25A · Antwerp2–13
- W30 Jul 23H · Kortrijk3–21
Anderlecht5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L7 Dec 25A · KVC Westerlo0–42
- L24 Oct 25A · Charleroi0–12
- W17 Aug 25A · Dender2–01
- D24 Sep 23H · Club Brugge KV1–11
- W13 Aug 23A · St. Truiden1–06
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent20 games · scored 28 · conceded 29
4
1
0-15
5
8
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
9
8
76-90
Anderlecht20 games · scored 28 · conceded 22
5
4
0-15
4
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
6
4
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
6
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
4
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
