Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Getafe were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Getafe had 2.8 days of rest, Levante 3.7 and had to travel 301 km.
Away travel301 kmRest days2.8 · 3.7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Getafe43%
Draw29%
Levante28%
Getafe45%
Draw27%
Levante28%
Getafe43%
Draw29%
Levante28%
Getafe36%
Draw29%
Levante35%
Getafe44%
Draw27%
Levante29%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 25
Team strength
Getafe
Levante
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
27
AttackIn forecast
55
59
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeLevante
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.17
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
67%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
8.00
ShotsContext
9.33
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
33%
On target shareContext
32%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
54%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
18%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.60
9.50
Shots allowedContext
19.00
3.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.33
2.17
BlocksContext
5.50
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
74%
Save rateContext
71%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
282
PassesContext
327
204
Accurate passesContext
264
73%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.70
14.50
FoulsContext
14.83
14.83
Fouls sufferedContext
11.17
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.30
ShotsContext
11.70
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
30%
On target shareContext
33%
5.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
62%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.38
9.80
Shots allowedContext
18.70
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
2.00
BlocksContext
4.40
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
70%
Save rateContext
69%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
272
PassesContext
353
192
Accurate passesContext
284
71%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.90
FoulsContext
13.60
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,020 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Levante
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel301 km776 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Sep | 3.7La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 301 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,020 km | 776 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
26Davinchi
3A. Abqar
22Domingos Duarte
2D. Dakonam
21Juan Iglesias
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
6Mario Martín
9Borja Mayoral
14Javi Muñoz
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
4Adrián de la Fuente
2M. Moreno
22J. Toljan
7Roger Brugué
16K. Arriaga
12Unai Vencedor
24Carlos Álvarez
9Iván Romero
21E. Eyong
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Levante
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Levante+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Levante · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Getafe wins1 draws1 Levante wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 4 Feb 2022Getafe3–0Levante
- 16 Oct 2021Levante0–0Getafe
- 16 May 2021Getafe2–1Levante
- 5 Dec 2020Levante3–0Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.83 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Getafe | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.83 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 2.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 8.83 | 9.60 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 5.33 | 4.00 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Getafe | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 6.56 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 10.00 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.00 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.44league 3.80
Red cards0.36league 0.26
Cards 5+72%league 39%
Fouls24.4league 24.5
Penalties0.24league 0.30
Home wins52%league 44%
Getafe2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L1 Dec 23A · Las Palmas0–26
- D30 Sep 23H · Villarreal0–02
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe6 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Levante6 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 19 · conceded 23
3
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
