GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for GIL Vicente. GIL Vicente had 6.1 days of rest, Alverca 7.1 and had to travel 295 km.
Away travel295 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
GIL Vicente59%
Draw24%
Alverca17%
GIL Vicente52%
Draw25%
Alverca23%
GIL Vicente59%
Draw24%
Alverca17%
GIL Vicente52%
Draw26%
Alverca22%
GIL Vicente60%
Draw23%
Alverca17%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 19
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Alverca
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
32
AttackIn forecast
38
50
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteAlverca
1.48
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.96
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
80%
Scored inContext
72%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
14.04
ShotsContext
8.92
4.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.52
33%
On target shareContext
36%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
5.83
57%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.92
9.68
Shots allowedContext
13.64
3.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.42
2.25
BlocksContext
4.16
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
72%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
362
PassesContext
357
293
Accurate passesContext
287
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.48
FoulsContext
12.32
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.24
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.30
ShotsContext
9.30
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
37%
On target shareContext
31%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
58%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.63
OffsidesContext
—
9.50
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
1.90
BlocksContext
4.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
56%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
373
PassesContext
359
304
Accurate passesContext
289
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.60
FoulsContext
12.10
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km626 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alverca
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel295 km580 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 295 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 626 km | 580 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
20Hevertton Santos
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
27Agustín Moreira
95Santi García
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
12Isaac James
18Lincoln
26Rhaldney
2Zoubdi
10Chiquinho
20Figueiredo
91Sandro Lima
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
1.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-3
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.83
Alverca · Away
0.75points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-7
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Estoril | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H | L 1–4 A |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Famalicao | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Arouca | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Tondela | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| AVS | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 38 of 72 · 1.58 per game | 28 of 72 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 GIL Vicente wins0 draws0 Alverca wins
Goals per game4.00 – 0.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 24 Oct 2025Alverca0–4GIL Vicente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.48 | 0.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 2.48 | 2.52 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 48% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 28% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| GIL Vicente | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.50 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.71 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 4.65 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.65 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 13/21 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 12/21 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 12/21 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.48 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.64 | 2.48 | |
| Match total | 5.12 | 4.88 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 18/25 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 15/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| GIL Vicente | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 10.00 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.30 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 4.83
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+37%league 59%
Fouls26.6league 27.0
Penalties0.11league 0.45
Home wins58%league 41%
GIL Vicente2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 Nov 25H · Santa Clara1–02
- L2 Nov 24H · Boavista1–23
Alverca1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L20 Sep 25A · Santa Clara1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente25 games · scored 37 · conceded 25
7
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
11
5
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
9
3
76-90
Alverca25 games · scored 24 · conceded 39
2
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
6
8
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
6
61-75
9
7
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
2
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
