GIL Vicente vs Benfica – 2 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 24 Mon, Mar 2 · 20:15 Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

GIL Vicente 5th · 40 pts · 23 played LWWWL

1–2Full time

Benfica 3rd · 55 pts · 23 played WDWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were slight favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for GIL Vicente. GIL Vicente had 8.1 days of rest, Benfica 9.1 and had to travel 315 km.

Away travel315 kmRest days8.1 · 9.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

GIL Vicente24%

Draw25%

Benfica51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.68

GIL Vicente20%

Draw24%

Benfica56%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.80

GIL Vicente24%

Draw25%

Benfica51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.68

GIL Vicente18%

Draw23%

Benfica59%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.88

GIL Vicente24%

Draw25%

Benfica51%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.73

Over 2.5 52% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Barcelos)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves

Cards per match 6.4
Penalties per match 0.71
Matches 14

Team strength

GIL Vicente

Benfica

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

32 AttackIn forecast 81

50 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GIL Vicente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GIL Vicente

Benfica

1.48 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.13

0.91 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.57

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.89

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.67

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

78% Scored inContext 91%

43% Clean sheetsContext 52%

13.91 ShotsContext 16.43

4.65 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.13

33% On target shareContext 37%

7.91 Shots in the boxContext 10.61

57% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.65 Shots allowedContext 7.70

3.81 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.76

2.22 BlocksContext 2.30

3.05 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

74% Save rateContext 81%

50% PossessionIn forecast 59%

361 PassesContext 489

292 Accurate passesContext 418

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.80 Team ratingContext 7.04

13.30 FoulsContext 10.70

14.48 Fouls sufferedContext 15.43

2.35 Yellow cardsContext 2.04

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.75

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.60 ShotsContext 18.00

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.70

34% On target shareContext 37%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 11.80

58% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.67

8.10 Shots allowedContext 9.10

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11

1.75 BlocksContext 3.10

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

57% Save rateContext 70%

53% PossessionIn forecast 55%

381 PassesContext 457

313 Accurate passesContext 387

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.97

10.90 FoulsContext 8.00

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.90

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GIL Vicente

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km642 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Benfica

Rest9.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel315 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	GIL Vicente	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb	9.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	315 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	642 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

GIL Vicente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30Lucão(G)

3G. Konan 39Jonathan Buatu 4M. Elimbi 2Zé Carlos

10Luís Esteves 5F. Cáseres

27Agustín Moreira 95Santi García 77Murilo

23Héctor Hernández

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 4António Silva 17A. Dedić

8F. Aursnes 18L. Barreiro

21A. Schjelderup 27Rafa 25G. Prestianni

14V. Pavlidis

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

GIL Vicente Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

GIL Vicente · Home 2.09points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 7-2-2
Scored: 1.73
Conceded: 0.73

Benfica · Away 2.45points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 8-3-0
Scored: 1.91
Conceded: 0.45

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	GIL Vicente	Benfica
Estoril	L 1–3 AW 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
SC Braga	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A	D 2–2 A
Moreirense	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H	W 4–0 A
Famalicao	W 5–0 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 H
FC Porto	L 0–3 AL 0–2 H	D 0–0 A
Nacional	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	W 2–1 A
Sporting CP	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Arouca	D 2–2 A	W 5–0 H
Rio Ave	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Casa Pia	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 H
Guimaraes	D 0–0 A	W 3–0 A
Tondela	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
AVS	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A
Santa Clara	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Alverca	W 4–0 A	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Estrela	W 2–0 H	W 4–0 HW 1–0 A
Points	40 of 66 · 1.82 per game	52 of 66 · 2.36 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

0 GIL Vicente wins0 draws7 Benfica wins

Goals per game0.71 – 3.00 Over 2.586% Both scored57% Clean sheets0% · 43%

26 Sep 2025Benfica2–1GIL Vicente
28 Mar 2025GIL Vicente0–3Benfica
28 Sep 2024Benfica5–1GIL Vicente
4 Feb 2024Benfica3–0GIL Vicente
26 Aug 2023GIL Vicente2–3Benfica
29 Apr 2023GIL Vicente0–2Benfica

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	GIL Vicente	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.48	2.13
Conceded per game	0.91	0.57
Match goals	2.39	2.70	2.75
Over 1.5	78%	83%
Over 2.5	43%	65%	52%
Over 3.5	22%	26%
Both teams scored	43%	48%	54%
Clean sheets	43%	52%
Failed to score	22%	9%
Games	23	23

	GIL Vicente	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.30
Conceded per game	1.50	0.50
Match goals	3.30	2.80	2.75
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	52%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	10%	60%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	GIL Vicente	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	6.68
Corners conceded	4.35	2.27
Match total	10.10	8.95	9.21
Over 8.5	65% 13/20	55% 12/22
Over 9.5	60% 12/20	41% 9/22
Over 10.5	60% 12/20	27% 6/22
Cards
Cards	2.52	2.13
Opponent cards	2.70	2.87
Match total	5.22	5.00	5.17
Over 3.5	74% 17/23	70% 16/23
Over 4.5	61% 14/23	61% 14/23

	GIL Vicente	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	7.80
Corners conceded	3.90	2.50
Match total	10.00	10.30	9.21
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.90
Opponent cards	2.90	3.10
Match total	4.60	5.00	5.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.36league 4.85

Red cards1.00league 0.27

Cards 5+71%league 59%

Fouls26.6league 27.0

Penalties0.71league 0.45

Home wins29%league 42%

GIL Vicente1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L26 Sep 25A · Benfica1–24

Benfica3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against1 · 2

D28 Dec 25A · SC Braga2–22
W26 Sep 25H · GIL Vicente2–13
W3 May 25A · Estoril2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.