GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards GIL Vicente. GIL Vicente had 5.8 days of rest, Famalicao 6.9 and had to travel 16 km.
Away travel16 kmRest days5.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
GIL Vicente41%
Draw28%
Famalicao31%
GIL Vicente40%
Draw27%
Famalicao33%
GIL Vicente41%
Draw28%
Famalicao31%
GIL Vicente34%
Draw29%
Famalicao38%
GIL Vicente41%
Draw28%
Famalicao31%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 15
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Famalicao
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
32
AttackIn forecast
24
50
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFamalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteFamalicao
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
0.84
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.74
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
74%
Scored inContext
74%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
53%
13.74
ShotsContext
12.32
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
32%
On target shareContext
33%
7.47
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
55%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.85
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.21
Shots allowedContext
10.37
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
2.43
BlocksContext
2.56
3.12
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
77%
Save rateContext
81%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
347
PassesContext
384
277
Accurate passesContext
312
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.58
FoulsContext
17.42
14.47
Fouls sufferedContext
16.11
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.58
0.16
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.50
ShotsContext
11.80
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
30%
On target shareContext
34%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
52%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.00
9.60
Shots allowedContext
10.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
2.25
BlocksContext
2.40
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
70%
Save rateContext
76%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
361
PassesContext
403
291
Accurate passesContext
331
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.20
FoulsContext
16.70
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.90
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km85 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Famalicao
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel16 km3,045 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Famalicao |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 10 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Jan | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 16 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 85 km | 3,045 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
7T. Touré
95Santi García
77Murilo
29Carlos Eduardo
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
16J. de Haas
55I. Ba
2Gustavo Garcia
14M. De Amorim
6T. van de Looi
7Sorriso
20Gustavo Sá
23Gil Dias
12S. Elisor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
1.89points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.78
Famalicao · Away
1.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-2
- Scored
- 0.89
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Arouca | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Tondela | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| AVS | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Alverca | W 4–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Estrela | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Estoril | W 2–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Moreirense | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 30 of 54 · 1.67 per game | 28 of 54 · 1.56 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 GIL Vicente wins3 draws3 Famalicao wins
Goals per game0.57 – 1.14
Over 2.529%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 43%
- 24 Aug 2025Famalicao0–0GIL Vicente
- 17 Feb 2025GIL Vicente0–2Famalicao
- 14 Sep 2024Famalicao1–1GIL Vicente
- 29 Mar 2024GIL Vicente1–2Famalicao
- 4 Nov 2023Famalicao3–1GIL Vicente
- 12 Feb 2023Famalicao0–1GIL Vicente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.84 | 0.74 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 2.00 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 53% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 37% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 32% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 53% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 26% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| GIL Vicente | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.06 | 4.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.81 | 9.95 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 11/16 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 11/16 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 69% 11/16 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.84 | 2.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.89 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 5.73 | 4.84 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 84% 16/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 68% 13/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| GIL Vicente | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.78 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 11.22 | 9.50 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.00 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 4.99
Red cards0.07league 0.29
Cards 5+40%league 59%
Fouls27.5league 27.2
Penalties0.27league 0.47
Home wins47%league 39%
GIL Vicente5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D8 Dec 25A · Guimaraes0–05
- L17 Feb 25H · Famalicao0–22
- L27 Jan 25A · AVS0–11
- L25 Oct 24A · Santa Clara1–25
- D25 Aug 24A · Estoril0–01
Famalicao2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W30 Aug 25A · AVS1–04
- W17 Feb 25A · GIL Vicente2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente19 games · scored 24 · conceded 16
5
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
9
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Famalicao19 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
