GIL Vicente vs FC Porto – 18 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Mon, Aug 18 · 20:15 Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

GIL Vicente 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

0–2Full time

FC Porto 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were slight favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 24). Absences weigh more on FC Porto. GIL Vicente had 9.2 days of rest, FC Porto 7 and had to travel 43 km.

Away travel43 kmRest days9.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

GIL Vicente21%

Draw25%

FC Porto55%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.75

GIL Vicente21%

Draw24%

FC Porto55%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.78

GIL Vicente20%

Draw25%

FC Porto55%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.75

GIL Vicente16%

Draw22%

FC Porto62%

Expected goals 0.89 – 1.97

GIL Vicente21%

Draw24%

FC Porto54%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.78

Over 2.5 52% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Barcelos)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalRicardo Baixinho

Cards per match 6.9
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 28

Team strength

GIL Vicente

FC Porto

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

32 AttackIn forecast 74

50 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GIL Vicente

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GIL Vicente

FC Porto

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.58

70% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.00 ShotsContext 13.50

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

34% On target shareContext 41%

6.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

52% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 14%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.20 Shots allowedContext 8.70

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.22 BlocksContext 2.38

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

71% Save rateContext 68%

47% PossessionIn forecast 61%

375 PassesContext 500

299 Accurate passesContext 435

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.09

12.50 FoulsContext 15.70

14.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GIL Vicente

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,454 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Porto

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel43 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	GIL Vicente	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Aug	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	43 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,454 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

GIL Vicente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

42Andrew(G)

3G. Konan 39Jonathan Buatu 4M. Elimbi 20Hevertton Santos

6Zé Carlos 5F. Cáseres

32Martin Fernández 10Luís Esteves 17Sergio Bermejo

9Pablo

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

12Z. Sanusi 5J. Bednarek 18P. Pérez 20Alberto Baio

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

17Borja Sainz 9Samu Omorodion 11Pepê

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

GIL Vicente Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Porto Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

GIL Vicente+0.7 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Porto-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

GIL Vicente · Home No home games yet this season.

FC Porto · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 GIL Vicente wins1 draws3 FC Porto wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.67 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

19 Jan 2025GIL Vicente3–1FC Porto
10 Aug 2024FC Porto3–0GIL Vicente
25 Feb 2024GIL Vicente1–1FC Porto
23 Sep 2023FC Porto2–1GIL Vicente
26 Feb 2023FC Porto1–2GIL Vicente
3 Sep 2022GIL Vicente0–2FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	GIL Vicente	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	3.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	3.00	2.75
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	53%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	GIL Vicente	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	3.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	3.00	2.75
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	53%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	GIL Vicente	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	7.00
Corners conceded	13.00	4.00
Match total	19.00	11.00	9.08
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	6.00	1.00
Opponent cards	3.00	3.00
Match total	9.00	4.00	4.62
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	GIL Vicente	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	3.88	5.33
Corners conceded	5.00	4.22
Match total	8.88	9.55	9.08
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.20
Opponent cards	2.60	3.60
Match total	5.10	5.80	4.62
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	100% 10/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo Baixinho Portugal · 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.46league 4.88

Red cards0.46league 0.13

Cards 5+79%league 56%

Fouls31.0league 28.4

Penalties0.25league 0.44

Home wins46%league 44%

GIL Vicente5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.3.4 · 4.6 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L11 Apr 25H · Guimaraes0–11
L8 Nov 24A · Moreirense2–35
L13 Feb 24H · Vizela0–13
W12 May 23H · Boavista3–13
D17 Feb 23H · Vizela1–15

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.