GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 22). GIL Vicente had 14.9 days of rest, Nacional 6 and had to travel 1,227 km.
Away travel1,227 kmRest days14.9 · 6Matches / 14d0 · 1
GIL Vicente51%
Draw26%
Nacional23%
GIL Vicente52%
Draw25%
Nacional23%
GIL Vicente51%
Draw26%
Nacional23%
GIL Vicente44%
Draw28%
Nacional29%
GIL Vicente52%
Draw25%
Nacional23%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 57
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Nacional
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
32
AttackIn forecast
15
50
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteNacional
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
0.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
76%
Scored inContext
76%
53%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
13.76
ShotsContext
11.65
4.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.94
32%
On target shareContext
34%
7.59
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
56%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.21
9.88
Shots allowedContext
14.94
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.35
2.50
BlocksContext
4.47
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
81%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
348
PassesContext
302
279
Accurate passesContext
226
80%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.29
FoulsContext
14.24
14.41
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.82
Yellow cardsContext
2.65
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.96
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.50
ShotsContext
12.70
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
32%
On target shareContext
33%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
52%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.75
9.10
Shots allowedContext
16.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.57
BlocksContext
4.60
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
82%
Save rateContext
62%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
357
PassesContext
321
290
Accurate passesContext
245
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.70
FoulsContext
13.60
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,227 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Jan | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,227 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
99Daniel Figueira(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
6Zé Carlos
7T. Touré
95Santi García
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
2João Aurélio
28Liziero
6Matheus Dias
15C. Labidi
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
10Daniel Júnior
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
1.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Nacional · Away
1.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 1–4 H |
| Arouca | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Tondela | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| AVS | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Alverca | W 4–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Estrela | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Estoril | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 25 of 48 · 1.56 per game | 17 of 48 · 1.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 GIL Vicente wins0 draws0 Nacional wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 9 Aug 2025Nacional0–2GIL Vicente
- 19 Apr 2025Nacional0–3GIL Vicente
- 7 Dec 2024GIL Vicente2–1Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.71 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.76 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 24% | 47% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 65% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 53% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 24% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| GIL Vicente | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.21 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 6.12 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.00 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 9/14 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 9/14 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 64% 9/14 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.82 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 5.76 | 5.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 15/17 | 76% 13/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 12/17 | 76% 13/17 | |
| GIL Vicente | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 9.30 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 6.40 | 6.00 | 5.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.18league 5.05
Red cards0.30league 0.29
Cards 5+47%league 60%
Fouls25.4league 27.3
Penalties0.23league 0.44
Home wins40%league 38%
GIL Vicente5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L28 Mar 25H · Benfica0–34
- L28 Sep 24A · Benfica1–52
- D12 Nov 23H · Rio Ave1–11
- L12 Mar 23A · Rio Ave1–23
- W11 Sep 22A · Maritimo2–10
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente17 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
5
2
0-15
3
16-30
9
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Nacional17 games · scored 21 · conceded 26
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
5
6
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
9
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
3
2
0-15
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
