GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 32). GIL Vicente had 5.1 days of rest, Sporting CP 4.9 and had to travel 315 km.
Away travel315 kmRest days5.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
GIL Vicente15%
Draw22%
Sporting CP63%
GIL Vicente15%
Draw22%
Sporting CP63%
GIL Vicente15%
Draw22%
Sporting CP63%
GIL Vicente11%
Draw19%
Sporting CP70%
GIL Vicente15%
Draw22%
Sporting CP63%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia
- Cards per match 6.2
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 61
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Sporting CP
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
32
AttackIn forecast
75
50
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteSporting CP
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.88
0.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
2.32
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.61
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
75%
Scored inContext
100%
56%
Clean sheetsContext
56%
13.44
ShotsContext
19.19
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.75
31%
On target shareContext
40%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
12.81
56%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.91
OffsidesContext
1.91
9.69
Shots allowedContext
7.75
3.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.79
2.45
BlocksContext
2.13
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
82%
Save rateContext
82%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
355
PassesContext
531
284
Accurate passesContext
465
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.14
14.13
FoulsContext
12.31
14.44
Fouls sufferedContext
13.13
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+1.01
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.20
ShotsContext
16.10
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.33
32%
On target shareContext
41%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
11.56
52%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
8.80
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.50
BlocksContext
2.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
79%
Save rateContext
83%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
371
PassesContext
528
302
Accurate passesContext
468
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.04
14.00
FoulsContext
11.60
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km148 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sporting CP
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel315 km622 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Dec | 4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 315 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 148 km | 622 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
42Andrew(G)
20Hevertton Santos
48Espigares
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
5F. Cáseres
10Luís Esteves
7T. Touré
95Santi García
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
2Matheus Reis
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
22Iván Fresneda
52João Simões
42M. Hjulmand
20M. Araújo
89F. Ioannidis
17Trincão
97L. Suárez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 0.71
Sporting CP · Away
2.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-0
- Scored
- 2.38
- Conceded
- 0.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | D 2–2 A | W 6–0 H |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 A | W 4–1 A |
| Tondela | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| AVS | D 1–1 A | W 6–0 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alverca | W 4–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Estrela | W 2–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Estoril | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Moreirense | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nacional | W 2–0 A | W 4–1 A |
| Points | 27 of 48 · 1.69 per game | 41 of 48 · 2.56 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 GIL Vicente wins2 draws4 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 50%
- 4 May 2025Sporting CP2–1GIL Vicente
- 22 Dec 2024GIL Vicente0–0Sporting CP
- 12 Apr 2024GIL Vicente0–4Sporting CP
- 4 Dec 2023Sporting CP3–1GIL Vicente
- 5 Apr 2023GIL Vicente0–0Sporting CP
- 30 Sep 2022Sporting CP3–1GIL Vicente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 2.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.69 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.38 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 94% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 69% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 44% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 56% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| GIL Vicente | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.08 | 6.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.15 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 9.14 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 8/13 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 62% 8/13 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.94 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.88 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.82 | 5.31 | 5.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 14/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 69% 11/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| GIL Vicente | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 8.14 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.20 | 4.90 | 5.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.77league 5.12
Red cards0.38league 0.30
Cards 5+70%league 62%
Fouls28.6league 27.2
Penalties0.41league 0.44
Home wins41%league 37%
GIL Vicente4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W26 Apr 25H · Farense1–01
- D22 Sep 24H · Casa Pia1–12
- D26 Apr 24H · Arouca2–23
- L6 Apr 24A · Rio Ave0–34
Sporting CP3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 5.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W8 Aug 25A · Casa Pia2–01
- W29 Mar 25A · Estrela3–01
- W4 Mar 23A · Portimonense1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente16 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
5
2
0-15
3
16-30
9
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Sporting CP16 games · scored 46 · conceded 8
4
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
10
31-45
8
1
46-60
8
2
61-75
11
1
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
4
2
0-15
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 28 · conceded 7
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
8
1
31-45
6
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
