GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 17). GIL Vicente had 20.2 days of rest, Tondela 21.1 and had to travel 122 km.
Away travel122 kmRest days20.2 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
GIL Vicente56%
Draw25%
Tondela19%
GIL Vicente57%
Draw24%
Tondela19%
GIL Vicente56%
Draw25%
Tondela19%
GIL Vicente49%
Draw27%
Tondela24%
GIL Vicente57%
Draw24%
Tondela19%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 12
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Tondela
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
32
AttackIn forecast
16
50
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteTondela
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.55
0.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.82
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.57
82%
Scored inContext
27%
73%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
13.09
ShotsContext
11.45
4.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.91
35%
On target shareContext
34%
7.73
Shots in the boxContext
6.73
59%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
1.71
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.45
Shots allowedContext
13.91
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.88
BlocksContext
3.70
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.27
86%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
338
PassesContext
325
268
Accurate passesContext
260
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.73
15.45
FoulsContext
14.00
13.55
Fouls sufferedContext
12.64
2.82
Yellow cardsContext
2.91
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.58
80%
Scored inContext
30%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.20
ShotsContext
12.10
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
37%
On target shareContext
34%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
60%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.20
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.86
BlocksContext
3.70
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
85%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
352
PassesContext
330
282
Accurate passesContext
263
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.76
15.50
FoulsContext
14.50
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tondela
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel122 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 21.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 122 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
42Andrew(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
11Joelson Fernandes
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
95Santi García
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
60N. Maviram
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
70M. Moudjatovic
15S. Sithole
32Juan Rodríguez
7Pedro Henryque
29J. Siebatcheu
79Hugo Félix
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 0.40
Tondela · Away
0.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-4
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alverca | W 4–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Estrela | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Estoril | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 17 of 24 · 2.13 per game | 6 of 24 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 0.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.45 | 1.82 | |
| Match goals | 1.91 | 2.36 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 18% | 64% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 9% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 18% | 27% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 73% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 73% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| GIL Vicente | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.30 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.36 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 8.81 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.09 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.64 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 5.73 | 5.27 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 91% 10/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 73% 8/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| GIL Vicente | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.43 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.29 | 9.00 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.58league 5.22
Red cards0.33league 0.28
Cards 5+67%league 66%
Fouls27.7league 27.6
Penalties0.42league 0.48
Home wins33%league 35%
GIL VicenteNo previous matches with this referee.
Tondela1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L10 Aug 25A · SC Braga0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente11 games · scored 16 · conceded 5
5
0-15
3
16-30
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Tondela11 games · scored 6 · conceded 20
1
0-15
3
16-30
7
31-45
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
5
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 6 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
16-30
6
31-45
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
