GIL Vicente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
GIL Vicente56.2%fair odds 1.78
Draw24.9%fair odds 4.01
Tondela18.9%fair odds 5.29
Expected goals1.72 – 0.90total 2.62
Likeliest score1–011.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Tondela
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| GIL Vicente ↓ · Tondela → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are GIL Vicente goals, columns Tondela goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–011.9%8.40
- 1–111.9%8.43
- 2–010.8%9.29
- 2–19.7%10.31
- 0–07.9%12.74
- 3–06.2%16.18
- 0–15.9%16.84
- 3–15.6%17.96
- 1–25.1%19.71
- 2–24.4%22.89
Winning margin
14.2%
GIL Vicente by 3+
fair 7.05
17.5%
GIL Vicente by 2
fair 5.70
24.5%
GIL Vicente by 1
fair 4.09
24.9%
Draw
fair 4.01
12.5%
Tondela by 1
fair 8.00
4.8%
Tondela by 2
fair 20.85
1.6%
Tondela by 3+
fair 62.14
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
GIL Vicente goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
10%4+
Tondela goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente win | 56.2% | 57.4% | -1.2 pp |
| Draw | 24.9% | 23.7% | +1.2 pp |
| Tondela win | 18.9% | 18.9% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.7% | 53.4% | -4.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.4% | 52.8% | -3.4 pp |
| Expected goals GIL Vicente | 1.72 | 1.85 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Tondela | 0.90 | 0.97 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- GIL Vicente win56.2%1.78
- Draw24.9%4.01
- Tondela win18.9%5.29
- Double chance GIL Vicente or draw81.1%1.23
- Double chance GIL Vicente or Tondela75.1%1.33
- Double chance Tondela or draw43.8%2.28
- Draw no bet GIL Vicente74.8%1.34
- Draw no bet Tondela25.2%3.97
Goals
- Over 0.592.1%1.09
- Over 1.574.3%1.35
- Over 2.548.7%2.05
- Over 3.526.9%3.72
- Over 4.512.6%7.94
- Under 1.525.7%3.89
- Under 2.551.3%1.95
- Under 3.573.1%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes49.4%2.03
- No50.6%1.98
- Yes and over 2.537.5%2.67
- GIL Vicente win and yes23.4%4.27
- Draw and yes17.1%5.86
- Tondela win and yes8.9%11.23
Team goals
- GIL Vicente over 0.582.1%1.22
- GIL Vicente over 1.551.4%1.95
- GIL Vicente over 2.524.9%4.02
- Tondela over 0.559.4%1.68
- Tondela over 1.522.8%4.39
- Tondela over 2.56.3%15.87
- GIL Vicente clean sheet40.6%2.46
- Tondela clean sheet17.9%5.60
- GIL Vicente win to nil32.8%3.05
- Tondela win to nil10.0%9.99
Handicap
- GIL Vicente −1.531.7%3.15
- GIL Vicente −2.514.2%7.05
- Tondela +1.568.3%1.46
- Tondela +2.585.8%1.17
- Tondela −1.56.4%15.61
- GIL Vicente +1.593.6%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored103
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.559
Over 2.5 called right63.1%
BTTS called right54.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 37.5% | 31.3% |
| 40–50% | 37 | 45.1% | 48.6% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 53.9% | 60.9% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 66.2% | 84.6% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 75.3% | 69.2% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 74 of 103 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5596 | 0.5384 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 44.9% |
| Favourite won | 56.8% | 58.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 74 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 103 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.