Eredivisie Gameweek 17 Sun, Dec 20 · 15:45 De Adelaarshorst, Deventer
GO Ahead Eagles 9th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Ajax 4th · 18 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel88 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
GO Ahead Eagles—%
Draw—%
Ajax—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Deventer)

Forecast from 5 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GO Ahead EaglesAjax
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
24 Current StrengthIn forecast 53
29 AttackIn forecast 66
17 DefenceIn forecast 55
14 Form indexContext 63
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—
Defense risk—

Ajax

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GO Ahead EaglesAjax
2.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
1.78 xGVia Att/Def 2.06
1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
+0.44 Goals minus xGContext +0.94
100% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 22%
15.78 ShotsContext 22.78
6.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.11
39% On target shareContext 36%
10.44 Shots in the boxContext 16.22
66% Box shareContext 71%
14% ConversionContext 13%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.13
16.89 Shots allowedContext 10.00
5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
5.50 BlocksContext 2.67
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13
57% Save rateContext 74%
56% PossessionIn forecast 62%
486 PassesContext 581
402 Accurate passesContext 516
83% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.74 Team ratingContext 7.03
7.11 FoulsContext 9.56
9.78 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89
0.78 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.90
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.54 xGVia Att/Def 2.03
2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
+0.56 Goals minus xGContext +0.87
100% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.50 ShotsContext 21.70
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80
39% On target shareContext 36%
10.44 Shots in the boxContext 15.40
66% Box shareContext 71%
15% ConversionContext 13%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.33
18.80 Shots allowedContext 9.50
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70
6.44 BlocksContext 2.60
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
62% Save rateContext 74%
55% PossessionIn forecast 62%
467 PassesContext 576
385 Accurate passesContext 509
82% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.75 Team ratingContext 7.05
7.20 FoulsContext 9.80
9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GO Ahead Eagles
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km160 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–41.5 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Sparta Rotterdam3–31.9 xPts
  • D20 SepA · NEC Nijmegen1–11.1 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Groningen1–11.6 xPts
  • D8 SepA · Utrecht3–31.2 xPts
Ajax
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Groningen5–21.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · NEC Nijmegen1–12.1 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Excelsior2–22.1 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Willem II5–12.5 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Fortuna Sittard5–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
GO Ahead Eagles Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 12 Dec6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km88 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways160 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 41 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one2120.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

GO Ahead Eagles Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs PEC Zwolle (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1C. Haug(G)
5D. James 4J. Kramer 25G. van Zwam 2A. Sampsted
8H. Linthorst 21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray 10S. Tengstedt 16V. Edvardsen
9S. Sigurðarson
Ajax Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Groningen (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1M. ter Stegen(G)
5O. Wijndal 36D. Janse 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa
24J. Mokio 4S. Amrabat 18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh 38Marcos Leonardo 8J. Brandt

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
GO Ahead Eagles Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Ajax Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

GO Ahead Eagles · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
2.75
Conceded
1.50
Ajax · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentGO Ahead EaglesAjax
PEC Zwolle L 1–4 A W 2–0 A
NEC Nijmegen D 1–1 A D 1–1 H
Groningen D 1–1 H W 5–2 A
Willem II W 4–1 H W 5–1 H
Points5 of 12 · 1.25 per game10 of 12 · 2.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 GO Ahead Eagles wins3 draws2 Ajax wins
Goals per game1.40 – 2.00 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%
  • 17 Jan 2026Ajax2–2GO Ahead Eagles
  • 17 Aug 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–2Ajax
  • 23 Feb 2025Ajax2–0GO Ahead Eagles
  • 21 Sep 2024GO Ahead Eagles1–1Ajax
  • 14 Jan 2024GO Ahead Eagles2–3Ajax

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GO Ahead EaglesAjaxForecast
Scored per game 2.223.00
Conceded per game 2.331.33
Match goals 4.564.33
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 78%78%
Over 3.5 78%78%
Both teams scored 100%78%
Clean sheets 0%22%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games99
GO Ahead EaglesAjaxForecast
Scored per game 2.102.70
Conceded per game 2.301.20
Match goals 4.403.90
Over 1.5 100%90%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 70%70%
Both teams scored 100%70%
Clean sheets 0%30%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GO Ahead EaglesAjaxLeague
Corners
Corners won6.336.88
Corners conceded4.783.00
Match total11.119.8810.39
Over 8.578% 7/963% 5/8
Over 9.578% 7/950% 4/8
Over 10.567% 6/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards0.782.00
Opponent cards0.891.78
Match total1.673.782.77
Over 3.50% 0/956% 5/9
Over 4.50% 0/933% 3/9
GO Ahead EaglesAjaxLeague
Corners
Corners won6.106.88
Corners conceded5.603.00
Match total11.709.8810.39
Over 8.580% 8/1063% 5/8
Over 9.580% 8/1050% 4/8
Over 10.570% 7/1038% 3/8
Cards
Cards0.901.90
Opponent cards0.902.00
Match total1.803.902.77
Over 3.50% 0/1060% 6/10
Over 4.50% 0/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

GO Ahead Eagles9 games · scored 20 · conceded 21
1 3 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 4 31-45
4 3 46-60
6 4 61-75
4 6 76-90
Ajax9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 21 · conceded 23
1 4 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
5 3 46-60
6 4 61-75
4 6 76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 29 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Telstar Willem II Dec 1819:00 Excelsior AZ Alkmaar Dec 1915:30 Fortuna Sittard Sparta Rotterdam Dec 1917:45 Utrecht Heerenveen Dec 1920:00 NEC Nijmegen ADO Den Haag Dec 2011:15 Feyenoord Twente Dec 2013:30 Cambuur Groningen Dec 2013:30 GO Ahead Eagles Ajax Dec 2015:45 PSV Eindhoven PEC Zwolle Dec 2019:00