Eredivisie Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 13 · 19:00 Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Ajax 4th · 18 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Cambuur 14th · 9 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel111 kmRest days7.2 · 7.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Ajax—%
Draw—%
Cambuur—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Amsterdam)

Forecast from 28 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Ajax and Cambuur. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AjaxCambuur
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 23
66 AttackIn forecast 22
55 DefenceIn forecast 23
63 Form indexContext 51
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ajax

Attack—
Defense risk—

Cambuur

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AjaxCambuur
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44
1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33
2.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.19
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03
+0.94 Goals minus xGContext +0.25
100% Scored inContext 89%
22% Clean sheetsContext 22%
22.78 ShotsContext 11.89
8.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44
36% On target shareContext 37%
16.22 Shots in the boxContext 8.33
71% Box shareContext 71%
13% ConversionContext 12%
2.13 OffsidesContext 2.00
10.00 Shots allowedContext 14.78
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67
2.67 BlocksContext 4.00
3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88
74% Save rateContext 63%
62% PossessionIn forecast 46%
581 PassesContext 369
516 Accurate passesContext 295
89% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.03 Team ratingContext 6.79
9.56 FoulsContext 12.11
9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
2.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.19
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03
+0.87 Goals minus xGContext +0.21
100% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
21.70 ShotsContext 14.10
7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90
36% On target shareContext 35%
15.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.30
71% Box shareContext 69%
13% ConversionContext 10%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.11
9.50 Shots allowedContext 13.80
3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40
2.60 BlocksContext 3.70
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67
74% Save rateContext 64%
62% PossessionIn forecast 49%
576 PassesContext 395
509 Accurate passesContext 317
88% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.05 Team ratingContext 6.84
9.80 FoulsContext 12.40
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ajax
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Groningen5–21.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · NEC Nijmegen1–12.1 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Excelsior2–22.1 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Willem II5–12.5 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Fortuna Sittard5–11.9 xPts
Cambuur
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel111 km56 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 9 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–20.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–01.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · ADO Den Haag1–11.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · NEC Nijmegen3–01.1 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Telstar2–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Ajax Cambuur
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 6 Dec7.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km111 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km56 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one6.96.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ajax Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Groningen (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1M. ter Stegen(G)
5O. Wijndal 36D. Janse 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa
24J. Mokio 4S. Amrabat 18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh 38Marcos Leonardo 8J. Brandt
Cambuur Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs AZ Alkmaar (H) 2–2, 18 Oct
1T. Jansen(G)
28M. Costarelli 14B. van Duijl 4I. Baouf 2D. Bouah
8N. Souren 33M. Maertens
11I. Hamache 10Rafik El Arguioui 30J. Çeka
13N. Binder

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Ajax Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Cambuur Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Ajax · Home 1.20points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
1-3-1
Scored
2.20
Conceded
1.80
Cambuur · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentAjaxCambuur
NEC Nijmegen D 1–1 H W 3–0 H
Excelsior D 2–2 H L 0–4 H
Fortuna Sittard W 5–1 A L 1–3 A
Telstar W 4–0 A D 2–2 A
PEC Zwolle W 2–0 A W 1–0 A
Points11 of 15 · 2.20 per game7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

AjaxCambuurForecast
Scored per game 3.001.44
Conceded per game 1.332.33
Match goals 4.333.78
Over 1.5 100%89%
Over 2.5 78%78%
Over 3.5 78%67%
Both teams scored 78%67%
Clean sheets 22%22%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games99
AjaxCambuurForecast
Scored per game 2.701.44
Conceded per game 1.202.33
Match goals 3.903.78
Over 1.5 90%89%
Over 2.5 70%78%
Over 3.5 70%67%
Both teams scored 70%67%
Clean sheets 30%22%
Failed to score 10%11%
Games109

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AjaxCambuurLeague
Corners
Corners won6.883.78
Corners conceded3.005.78
Match total9.889.5610.39
Over 8.563% 5/878% 7/9
Over 9.550% 4/844% 4/9
Over 10.538% 3/833% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.001.78
Opponent cards1.781.78
Match total3.783.562.77
Over 3.556% 5/956% 5/9
Over 4.533% 3/933% 3/9
AjaxCambuurLeague
Corners
Corners won6.884.80
Corners conceded3.005.30
Match total9.8810.1010.39
Over 8.563% 5/880% 8/10
Over 9.550% 4/850% 5/10
Over 10.538% 3/840% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.902.00
Opponent cards2.002.40
Match total3.904.402.77
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Ajax9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
Cambuur9 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
1 2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
4 5 76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 29 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
Cambuur10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1 2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Utrecht Fortuna Sittard Dec 1215:30 Heerenveen GO Ahead Eagles Dec 1217:45 PEC Zwolle Excelsior Dec 1220:00 PSV Eindhoven Telstar Dec 1311:15 Willem II ADO Den Haag Dec 1313:30 Groningen Feyenoord Dec 1313:30 AZ Alkmaar NEC Nijmegen Dec 1315:45 Twente Sparta Rotterdam Dec 1316:00 Ajax Cambuur Dec 1319:00