GO Ahead Eagles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
GO Ahead Eagles13.4%fair odds 7.44
Draw20.1%fair odds 4.97
Aston Villa66.4%fair odds 1.51
Expected goals0.87 – 2.16total 3.03
Likeliest score0–211.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| GO Ahead Eagles ↓ · Aston Villa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are GO Ahead Eagles goals, columns Aston Villa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.3%8.88
- 0–19.9%10.07
- 1–29.8%10.20
- 1–19.6%10.47
- 0–38.1%12.33
- 1–37.1%14.15
- 0–05.3%18.87
- 0–44.4%22.81
- 2–24.3%23.41
- 2–14.0%25.31
Winning margin
1.0%
GO Ahead Eagles by 3+
fair 96.97
3.3%
GO Ahead Eagles by 2
fair 30.47
9.1%
GO Ahead Eagles by 1
fair 10.96
20.1%
Draw
fair 4.97
23.3%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 4.28
20.2%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 4.95
22.9%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 4.37
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
GO Ahead Eagles goals
42%0
36%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
Aston Villa goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles win | 13.4% | 13.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 20.1% | 20.9% | -0.8 pp |
| Aston Villa win | 66.4% | 65.5% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 55.6% | +2.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.9% | 50.0% | +2.0 pp |
| Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles | 0.87 | 0.84 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 2.16 | 2.07 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- GO Ahead Eagles win13.4%7.44
- Draw20.1%4.97
- Aston Villa win66.4%1.51
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw33.6%2.98
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or Aston Villa79.9%1.25
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw86.6%1.16
- Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles16.8%5.94
- Draw no bet Aston Villa83.2%1.20
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.1%1.23
- Over 2.558.4%1.71
- Over 3.536.0%2.78
- Over 4.519.0%5.26
- Under 1.518.9%5.28
- Under 2.541.6%2.40
- Under 3.564.0%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes51.9%1.93
- No48.1%2.08
- Yes and over 2.542.4%2.36
- GO Ahead Eagles win and yes7.2%13.85
- Draw and yes14.8%6.74
- Aston Villa win and yes29.9%3.35
Team goals
- GO Ahead Eagles over 0.558.2%1.72
- GO Ahead Eagles over 1.521.7%4.61
- GO Ahead Eagles over 2.55.8%17.19
- Aston Villa over 0.588.5%1.13
- Aston Villa over 1.563.6%1.57
- Aston Villa over 2.536.7%2.72
- GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet11.5%8.69
- Aston Villa clean sheet41.8%2.39
- GO Ahead Eagles win to nil6.2%16.09
- Aston Villa win to nil36.6%2.74
Handicap
- GO Ahead Eagles −1.54.3%23.18
- GO Ahead Eagles −2.51.0%96.97
- Aston Villa +1.595.7%1.05
- Aston Villa +2.599.0%1.01
- Aston Villa −1.543.1%2.32
- GO Ahead Eagles +1.556.9%1.76
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won52.8%
Avg chance given to result39.4%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right44.4%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.8% | 60.0% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 44.4% | 35.3% |
| 50–60% | 11 | 54.8% | 72.7% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 65.3% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 18 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5928 | 0.6390 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.5% | 37.9% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 55.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.