GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were clear favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 27). GO Ahead Eagles had 5 days of rest, Aston Villa 4.2 and had to travel 548 km.
Away travel548 kmRest days5 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
GO Ahead Eagles13%
Draw20%
Aston Villa66%
GO Ahead Eagles14%
Draw21%
Aston Villa66%
GO Ahead Eagles14%
Draw20%
Aston Villa67%
GO Ahead Eagles10%
Draw17%
Aston Villa73%
GO Ahead Eagles14%
Draw21%
Aston Villa66%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · SlovakiaFilip Glova
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 15
Team strength
GO Ahead Eagles
Aston Villa
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
29
AttackIn forecast
83
17
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesAston Villa
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
12.00
ShotsContext
9.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
46%
On target shareContext
39%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
65%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
17%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
20.00
Shots allowedContext
17.50
7.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
—
BlocksContext
5.00
6.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
7.00
87%
Save rateContext
100%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
482
PassesContext
424
412
Accurate passesContext
362
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.13
Team ratingContext
7.13
10.00
FoulsContext
13.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.60
ShotsContext
10.20
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
44%
On target shareContext
31%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
67%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.13
18.10
Shots allowedContext
12.60
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
6.50
BlocksContext
4.10
4.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
77%
Save rateContext
79%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
457
PassesContext
445
385
Accurate passesContext
381
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.20
FoulsContext
10.40
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km204 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel548 km325 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 548 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 204 km | 325 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
3G. Nauber
2M. Deijl
34Y. Rahmouni
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
7J. Breum
18R. Margaret
9M. Smit
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
22I. Maatsen
14Pau Torres
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
24A. Onana
26L. Bogarde
19J. Sancho
10E. Buendía
29E. Guessand
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Aston Villa-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Aston Villa · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.50 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.90 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 10.00 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.50 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 11.90 | 10.70 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.30 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Filip Glova Slovakia · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.60league 4.08
Red cards0.13league 0.14
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls25.4league 25.7
Penalties0.13league 0.36
Home wins40%league 42%
GO Ahead EaglesNo previous matches with this referee.
Aston VillaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Aston Villa2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles9 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →
Lyon
FC Basel 1893
20
SC Braga
FK Crvena Zvezda
20
Brann
Rangers
30
GO Ahead Eagles
Aston Villa
21
FCSB
Bologna
12
Red Bull Salzburg
Ferencvarosi TC
23
Fenerbahce
VfB Stuttgart
10
Genk
Real Betis
00
Feyenoord
Panathinaikos
31
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
20
Lille
PAOK
34
SC Freiburg
Utrecht
20
Celtic
Sturm Graz
21
Malmo FF
Dinamo Zagreb
11
AS Roma
Plzen
12
Celta Vigo
Nice
21
BSC Young Boys
Ludogorets
32
Maccabi Tel Aviv
FC Midtjylland
03