Eredivisie Gameweek 33 Sun, May 16 · 13:30 Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Ajax 4th · 18 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Sparta Rotterdam 13th · 9 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel57 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Ajax—%
Draw—%
Sparta Rotterdam—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Amsterdam)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Ajax and Sparta Rotterdam. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AjaxSparta Rotterdam
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 18
66 AttackIn forecast 32
55 DefenceIn forecast 17
63 Form indexContext 20
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ajax

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AjaxSparta Rotterdam
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78
1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.44
2.06 xGVia Att/Def 2.12
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.86
+0.94 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
100% Scored inContext 78%
22% Clean sheetsContext 0%
22.78 ShotsContext 14.56
8.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.57
36% On target shareContext 35%
16.22 Shots in the boxContext 10.22
71% Box shareContext 69%
13% ConversionContext 12%
2.13 OffsidesContext 2.67
10.00 Shots allowedContext 17.00
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.44
2.67 BlocksContext 4.78
3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88
74% Save rateContext 65%
62% PossessionIn forecast 45%
581 PassesContext 380
516 Accurate passesContext 308
89% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.03 Team ratingContext 6.70
9.56 FoulsContext 10.11
9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
2.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.05
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71
+0.87 Goals minus xGContext -0.25
100% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 0%
21.70 ShotsContext 14.80
7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.25
36% On target shareContext 34%
15.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
71% Box shareContext 70%
13% ConversionContext 12%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.50
9.50 Shots allowedContext 16.90
3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
2.60 BlocksContext 4.60
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
74% Save rateContext 62%
62% PossessionIn forecast 46%
576 PassesContext 384
509 Accurate passesContext 311
88% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.05 Team ratingContext 6.70
9.80 FoulsContext 10.10
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ajax
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km60 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Groningen5–21.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · NEC Nijmegen1–12.1 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Excelsior2–22.1 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Willem II5–12.5 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Fortuna Sittard5–11.9 xPts
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel57 km256 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Willem II3–22.0 xPts
  • D10 OctA · GO Ahead Eagles3–30.9 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Heerenveen0–41.6 xPts
  • L13 SepA · PSV Eindhoven1–40.2 xPts
  • D4 SepH · PEC Zwolle2–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Ajax Sparta Rotterdam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 May6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways60 km256 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ajax Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Groningen (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1M. ter Stegen(G)
5O. Wijndal 36D. Janse 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa
24J. Mokio 4S. Amrabat 18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh 38Marcos Leonardo 8J. Brandt
Sparta Rotterdam Last XI · not confirmed
5-4-1 · vs Willem II (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1M. Brouwer(G)
5B. Kuipers 4R. Martins Indi 6N. Verschuren 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes
11I. Babadi 10C. Hatenboer 8J. Toornstra 7Robin van Cruijsen
9Milan Zonneveld

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Ajax Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sparta Rotterdam Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Ajax · Home 1.20points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
1-3-1
Scored
2.20
Conceded
1.80
Sparta Rotterdam · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentAjaxSparta Rotterdam
Excelsior D 2–2 H L 1–2 A
Willem II W 5–1 H W 3–2 H
PSV Eindhoven L 1–3 H L 1–4 A
Telstar W 4–0 A W 3–1 A
Heerenveen D 2–2 H L 0–4 H
PEC Zwolle W 2–0 A D 2–2 H
Points11 of 18 · 1.83 per game7 of 18 · 1.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Ajax wins2 draws0 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game2.40 – 1.00 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%
  • 14 Mar 2026Ajax4–0Sparta Rotterdam
  • 4 Oct 2025Sparta Rotterdam3–3Ajax
  • 27 Apr 2025Ajax1–1Sparta Rotterdam
  • 22 Dec 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2Ajax
  • 9 Dec 2023Ajax2–1Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AjaxSparta RotterdamForecast
Scored per game 3.001.78
Conceded per game 1.332.44
Match goals 4.334.22
Over 1.5 100%89%
Over 2.5 78%89%
Over 3.5 78%78%
Both teams scored 78%78%
Clean sheets 22%0%
Failed to score 0%22%
Games99
AjaxSparta RotterdamForecast
Scored per game 2.701.80
Conceded per game 1.202.50
Match goals 3.904.30
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 70%90%
Over 3.5 70%80%
Both teams scored 70%80%
Clean sheets 30%0%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AjaxSparta RotterdamLeague
Corners
Corners won6.885.67
Corners conceded3.006.89
Match total9.8812.5610.39
Over 8.563% 5/889% 8/9
Over 9.550% 4/878% 7/9
Over 10.538% 3/867% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.001.67
Opponent cards1.781.11
Match total3.782.782.77
Over 3.556% 5/922% 2/9
Over 4.533% 3/911% 1/9
AjaxSparta RotterdamLeague
Corners
Corners won6.885.60
Corners conceded3.006.40
Match total9.8812.0010.39
Over 8.563% 5/880% 8/10
Over 9.550% 4/870% 7/10
Over 10.538% 3/860% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.901.90
Opponent cards2.001.00
Match total3.902.902.77
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Ajax9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
Sparta Rotterdam9 games · scored 16 · conceded 22
2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 4 61-75
3 5 76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 29 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 18 · conceded 25
2 1 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 3 31-45
5 5 46-60
3 5 61-75
4 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Ajax Sparta Rotterdam May 1613:30 Excelsior ADO Den Haag May 1613:30 PSV Eindhoven NEC Nijmegen May 1613:30 AZ Alkmaar PEC Zwolle May 1613:30 Groningen Cambuur May 1613:30 Fortuna Sittard Willem II May 1613:30 Utrecht Telstar May 1613:30 GO Ahead Eagles Heerenveen May 1613:30 Twente Feyenoord May 1613:30