Eredivisie Gameweek 33 Sun, May 16 · 13:30 Euroborg, Groningen
Groningen 7th · 14 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Cambuur 14th · 9 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel50 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Groningen—%
Draw—%
Cambuur—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Groningen)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Groningen and Cambuur. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GroningenCambuur
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
30 Current StrengthIn forecast 23
41 AttackIn forecast 22
21 DefenceIn forecast 23
44 Form indexContext 51
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Cambuur

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GroningenCambuur
2.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44
2.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33
1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.19
2.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext +0.25
100% Scored inContext 89%
11% Clean sheetsContext 22%
14.78 ShotsContext 11.89
5.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44
39% On target shareContext 37%
10.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.33
65% Box shareContext 71%
17% ConversionContext 12%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.33 Shots allowedContext 14.78
5.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67
4.13 BlocksContext 4.00
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88
60% Save rateContext 63%
51% PossessionIn forecast 46%
434 PassesContext 369
355 Accurate passesContext 295
82% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.79
8.89 FoulsContext 12.11
11.11 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.19
2.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03
+0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.21
90% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.80 ShotsContext 14.10
5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90
38% On target shareContext 35%
9.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.30
62% Box shareContext 69%
16% ConversionContext 10%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.11
15.00 Shots allowedContext 13.80
5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40
4.00 BlocksContext 3.70
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67
60% Save rateContext 64%
49% PossessionIn forecast 49%
425 PassesContext 395
345 Accurate passesContext 317
81% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.81 Team ratingContext 6.84
9.60 FoulsContext 12.40
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 44 · 8 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Ajax2–51.4 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Excelsior5–11.1 xPts
  • W18 SepH · PEC Zwolle3–02.0 xPts
  • D12 SepA · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.1 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Twente2–21.1 xPts
Cambuur
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel50 km337 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 9 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–20.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–01.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · ADO Den Haag1–11.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · NEC Nijmegen3–01.1 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Telstar2–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Groningen Cambuur
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 May6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km50 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways227 km337 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ajax (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1E. Vaessen(G)
33H. Hateboer 5M. Rente 3T. Blokzijl 14J. Schreuders
24P. Clement 8T. de Jonge
11J. Ondrejka 26T. van Bergen 17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
Cambuur Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs AZ Alkmaar (H) 2–2, 18 Oct
1T. Jansen(G)
28M. Costarelli 14B. van Duijl 4I. Baouf 2D. Bouah
8N. Souren 33M. Maertens
11I. Hamache 10Rafik El Arguioui 30J. Çeka
13N. Binder

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Groningen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Cambuur Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
2-1-2
Scored
2.20
Conceded
2.20
Cambuur · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentGroningenCambuur
Excelsior W 5–1 A L 0–4 H
PEC Zwolle W 3–0 H W 1–0 A
Twente D 2–2 H L 1–4 H
Fortuna Sittard L 2–3 H L 1–3 A
ADO Den Haag W 4–1 A D 1–1 A
Points10 of 15 · 2.00 per game4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

GroningenCambuurForecast
Scored per game 2.441.44
Conceded per game 2.112.33
Match goals 4.563.78
Over 1.5 100%89%
Over 2.5 89%78%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 89%67%
Clean sheets 11%22%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games99
GroningenCambuurForecast
Scored per game 2.401.44
Conceded per game 2.002.33
Match goals 4.403.78
Over 1.5 100%89%
Over 2.5 90%78%
Over 3.5 60%67%
Both teams scored 90%67%
Clean sheets 10%22%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games109

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GroningenCambuurLeague
Corners
Corners won4.893.78
Corners conceded4.565.78
Match total9.459.5610.39
Over 8.578% 7/978% 7/9
Over 9.556% 5/944% 4/9
Over 10.522% 2/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.001.78
Opponent cards1.441.78
Match total2.443.562.77
Over 3.511% 1/956% 5/9
Over 4.511% 1/933% 3/9
GroningenCambuurLeague
Corners
Corners won4.894.80
Corners conceded4.565.30
Match total9.4510.1010.39
Over 8.578% 7/980% 8/10
Over 9.556% 5/950% 5/10
Over 10.522% 2/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.302.00
Opponent cards1.402.40
Match total2.704.402.77
Over 3.520% 2/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Groningen9 games · scored 22 · conceded 19
4 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
4 5 31-45
2 4 46-60
3 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Cambuur9 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
1 2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
4 5 76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 21
4 3 0-15
5 3 16-30
4 5 31-45
2 5 46-60
3 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Cambuur10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1 2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Ajax Sparta Rotterdam May 1613:30 Excelsior ADO Den Haag May 1613:30 PSV Eindhoven NEC Nijmegen May 1613:30 AZ Alkmaar PEC Zwolle May 1613:30 Groningen Cambuur May 1613:30 Fortuna Sittard Willem II May 1613:30 Utrecht Telstar May 1613:30 GO Ahead Eagles Heerenveen May 1613:30 Twente Feyenoord May 1613:30