Cambuur
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel28 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Cambuur—%
Draw—%
Heerenveen—%
Weather (Leeuwarden)
Forecast from 24 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Cambuur and Heerenveen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Cambuur
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Heerenveen
4
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Heerenveen
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Cambuur
5
Unbeaten in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Insight
Cambuur
−0.84
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.19xG against2.03
-
Insight
Heerenveen
−0.31
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.27xG against1.58
Attack
-
Trend
Heerenveen
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Cambuur
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Cambuur
8
Scoring in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
-
Insight
Heerenveen
4
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Cambuur
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Cambuur
−0.84
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.19xG against2.03
-
Insight
Heerenveen
−0.31
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.27xG against1.58
Team strength
CambuurHeerenveen
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
22
AttackIn forecast
36
23
DefenceIn forecast
40
51
Form indexContext
39
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CambuurHeerenveen
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
2.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
89%
Scored inContext
67%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
11.89
ShotsContext
15.11
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
37%
On target shareContext
40%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
71%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.20
14.78
Shots allowedContext
14.56
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
4.44
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
63%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
369
PassesContext
493
295
Accurate passesContext
421
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.11
FoulsContext
8.67
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.78
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
2.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.10
ShotsContext
14.90
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
35%
On target shareContext
40%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
69%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.80
Shots allowedContext
15.20
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.70
BlocksContext
4.70
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
64%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
395
PassesContext
498
317
Accurate passesContext
425
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.40
FoulsContext
8.40
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cambuur
DWDWD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km527 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 9 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected
Heerenveen
LDWLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel28 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cambuur |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 2 May | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 28 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 527 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cambuur
Last XI · not confirmed
1T. Jansen(G)
28M. Costarelli
14B. van Duijl
4I. Baouf
2D. Bouah
8N. Souren
33M. Maertens
11I. Hamache
10Rafik El Arguioui
30J. Çeka
13N. Binder
Heerenveen
Last XI · not confirmed
1B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
8N. Courtens
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
14L. Smans
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cambuur
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Heerenveen
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Cambuur · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 3.00
Heerenveen · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Cambuur | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 H | L 2–3 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Twente | L 1–4 H | W 1–0 H |
| Excelsior | L 0–4 H | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Cambuur | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.78 | 2.89 | |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 56% | |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Cambuur | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.78 | 2.60 | |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 30% | |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 40% | |
| Games | 9 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cambuur | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 10.00 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.56 | 2.33 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cambuur | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 10.40 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 2.20 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Cambuur9 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Heerenveen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Cambuur10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
