GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for SC Braga. GO Ahead Eagles had 7 days of rest, SC Braga 4 and had to travel 1,620 km.
Away travel1,620 kmRest days7 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3
GO Ahead Eagles18%
Draw22%
SC Braga60%
GO Ahead Eagles21%
Draw24%
SC Braga55%
GO Ahead Eagles18%
Draw22%
SC Braga60%
GO Ahead Eagles13%
Draw19%
SC Braga68%
GO Ahead Eagles19%
Draw23%
SC Braga58%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 102
Team strength
GO Ahead Eagles
SC Braga
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
29
AttackIn forecast
42
17
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesSC Braga
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
2.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
57%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
71%
9.57
ShotsContext
10.86
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
39%
On target shareContext
36%
6.57
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
67%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.50
17.86
Shots allowedContext
9.29
7.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
5.33
BlocksContext
2.50
5.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
72%
Save rateContext
79%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
428
PassesContext
494
358
Accurate passesContext
420
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.71
FoulsContext
11.00
8.17
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
2.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.30
ShotsContext
11.80
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
44%
On target shareContext
37%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
65%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
17.40
Shots allowedContext
7.90
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
4.50
BlocksContext
1.88
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
71%
Save rateContext
78%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
441
PassesContext
621
363
Accurate passesContext
550
82%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.60
FoulsContext
11.10
8.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,084 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
SC Braga
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,620 km237 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 35 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 4Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,620 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,084 km | 237 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
25G. van Zwam
29A. Adelgaard
8H. Linthorst
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
7J. Breum
11O. Sivertsen
16V. Edvardsen
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
5Leonardo Lelo
27F. Grillitsch
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
10R. Zalazar
39Fran Navarro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- SC Braga+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
SC Braga · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.29 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 14% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 29% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 71% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.70 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 4.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.14 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 8.14 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 4.43 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 8.26 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.90 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 4.13
Red cards0.26league 0.21
Cards 5+38%league 42%
Fouls24.7league 24.2
Penalties0.41league 0.36
Home wins43%league 51%
GO Ahead EaglesNo previous matches with this referee.
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
5
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
SC Braga7 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
0-15
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
2
6
0-15
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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