Celje vs NEC Nijmegen – 28 Jan 2027

UEFA Europa League Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 28 · 20:00 Stadion Z’dežele, Celje

Celje 35th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

NEC Nijmegen 27th · 1 pts · 2 played LD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel926 kmRest days7.1 · 4.3Matches / 14d1 · 3

Real contextStrength only

Celje—%

Draw—%

NEC Nijmegen—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Celje)

Forecast from 13 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Celje 3 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Celje

NEC Nijmegen

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

17 AttackIn forecast 37

19 DefenceIn forecast 33

— Form indexContext 18

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celje

Attack—

Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celje

NEC Nijmegen

0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.00

0.91 xGVia Att/Def —

2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.91 Goals minus xGContext —

0% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.00 ShotsContext 14.50

2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

28% On target shareContext 41%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

78% Box shareContext 53%

0% ConversionContext 3%

1.50 OffsidesContext —

15.50 Shots allowedContext 9.50

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.50 BlocksContext 2.00

5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50

71% Save rateContext 33%

53% PossessionIn forecast 52%

582 PassesContext 493

514 Accurate passesContext 423

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.47 Team ratingContext 6.37

9.50 FoulsContext 16.50

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

1.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.84

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.83 ShotsContext 12.00

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

32% On target shareContext 32%

6.17 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

61% Box shareContext 59%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.80 OffsidesContext 2.43

15.83 Shots allowedContext 12.70

6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

4.00 BlocksContext 2.80

4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

70% Save rateContext 59%

55% PossessionIn forecast 52%

566 PassesContext 442

492 Accurate passesContext 358

87% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.44

12.86 FoulsContext 11.70

11.57 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celje LL

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km4,898 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

Form 28 · 0 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected

L15 OctH · Omonia Nicosia0–31.4 xPts
L16 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–20.3 xPts

NEC Nijmegen LDDDD

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel926 km214 km in 14d

Schedule load27%Moderate

Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

D18 OctH · Fortuna Sittard2–21.9 xPts
D15 OctH · Levski Sofia1–11.8 xPts
D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celje	NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Jan	4.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	926 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,898 km	214 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	—	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celje Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Omonia Nicosia (H) 0–3, 15 Oct

1Ž. Leban(G)

11M. Avdyli 6A. Tutyškinas 15Žan Žužek 44Ł. Bejger

14L. Tičić 19M. Zabukovnik 13P. Daniel 91Y. Dukuly

9B. Kramer 10S. Sešlar

NEC Nijmegen Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Fortuna Sittard (H) 2–2, 18 Oct

1G. Crettaz(G)

24D. Fonville 22A. Kaplan 21T. Storm

35Jamiro Monteiro 18D. Geiger 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers

99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton

30B. Linssen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celje Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

NEC Nijmegen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Celje · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 3.00

NEC Nijmegen · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 5.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celje	NEC Nijmegen
Scored per game	0.00	0.50
Conceded per game	2.50	3.00
Match goals	2.50	3.50
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	50%
Games	2	2

	Celje	NEC Nijmegen
Scored per game	1.13	1.10
Conceded per game	1.75	2.20
Match goals	2.88	3.30
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	70%
Over 3.5	13%	50%
Both teams scored	63%	70%
Clean sheets	13%	0%
Failed to score	25%	30%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celje	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	2.50	6.00
Corners conceded	6.00	1.00
Match total	8.50	7.00	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	0.50
Match total	3.00	1.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Celje	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.00
Corners conceded	7.33	3.88
Match total	12.33	7.88	9.76
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.50
Opponent cards	1.50	1.40
Match total	4.20	2.90	3.76
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.