Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Guimaraes were slight favourites.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 25). Guimaraes had 7 days of rest, Alverca 7.2 and had to travel 290 km.
Away travel290 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Guimaraes54%
Draw25%
Alverca21%
Guimaraes53%
Draw25%
Alverca22%
Guimaraes54%
Draw25%
Alverca21%
Guimaraes46%
Draw27%
Alverca27%
Guimaraes54%
Draw24%
Alverca22%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Guimarães)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 6
Team strength
Guimaraes
Alverca
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
28
AttackIn forecast
38
39
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesAlverca
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
65%
Scored inContext
74%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
12.96
ShotsContext
8.61
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.62
29%
On target shareContext
38%
7.17
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
56%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.35
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.45
3.11
BlocksContext
4.22
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
368
PassesContext
350
301
Accurate passesContext
281
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.75
14.30
FoulsContext
12.91
15.26
Fouls sufferedContext
13.52
2.48
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.10
ShotsContext
8.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
28%
On target shareContext
37%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.22
61%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.63
OffsidesContext
—
10.20
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.57
BlocksContext
4.60
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
60%
Save rateContext
62%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
384
PassesContext
332
315
Accurate passesContext
263
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.69
15.50
FoulsContext
12.70
15.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km32 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alverca
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel290 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 7.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 290 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 32 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
27Charles(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
26R. Abascal
28Thiago Balieiro
66T. Strata
23Diogo Sousa
16Beni
48N. Saviolo
20Samu
11Gustavo Silva
90A. Ndoye
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
12Isaac James
18Lincoln
26Rhaldney
2Zoubdi
10Chiquinho
9M. Milovanović
20Figueiredo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.75points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-3
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 1.25
Alverca · Away
0.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-7
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H |
| Estrela | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Arouca | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Moreirense | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Estoril | L 2–4 AW 3–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Casa Pia | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| Rio Ave | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 0–0 H | L 0–4 H |
| AVS | W 4–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 31 of 66 · 1.41 per game | 23 of 66 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Guimaraes wins0 draws1 Alverca wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 28 Sep 2025Alverca2–0Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 52% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 52% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 26% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Guimaraes | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.70 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.32 | 4.65 | |
| Match total | 7.82 | 8.65 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 10/22 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 7/22 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 4/22 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.61 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.52 | |
| Match total | 5.61 | 5.00 | 5.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 18/23 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 74% 17/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Guimaraes | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 9.75 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 4.40 | 5.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe Portugal · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.50league 4.85
Red cards0.33league 0.27
Cards 5+83%league 59%
Fouls27.5league 26.9
Penalties0.17league 0.44
Home wins50%league 43%
Guimaraes1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Dec 25A · Casa Pia0–02
Alverca1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W12 Sep 25H · Tondela1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Guimaraes23 games · scored 27 · conceded 34
1
3
0-15
5
4
16-30
7
8
31-45
3
6
46-60
7
5
61-75
4
8
76-90
Alverca23 games · scored 23 · conceded 38
2
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
6
8
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
9
7
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
