Guimaraes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Guimaraes66.6%fair odds 1.50
Draw20.9%fair odds 4.79
AVS12.5%fair odds 7.99
Expected goals2.04 – 0.77total 2.81
Likeliest score2–012.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AVS
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Guimaraes ↓ · AVS → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Guimaraes goals, columns AVS goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.6%7.96
- 1–011.8%8.48
- 1–19.9%10.07
- 2–19.6%10.38
- 3–08.6%11.69
- 3–16.6%15.23
- 0–06.5%15.35
- 4–04.4%22.88
- 0–14.1%24.30
- 2–23.7%27.04
Winning margin
21.8%
Guimaraes by 3+
fair 4.59
20.6%
Guimaraes by 2
fair 4.86
24.3%
Guimaraes by 1
fair 4.11
20.9%
Draw
fair 4.79
8.8%
AVS by 1
fair 11.34
2.9%
AVS by 2
fair 34.50
0.8%
AVS by 3+
fair 125.17
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Guimaraes goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
AVS goals
46%0
36%1
14%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes win | 66.6% | 67.7% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 20.9% | 19.8% | +1.1 pp |
| AVS win | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 57.6% | -4.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.1% | 50.2% | -3.1 pp |
| Expected goals Guimaraes | 2.04 | 2.17 | -0.13 |
| Expected goals AVS | 0.77 | 0.82 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Guimaraes win66.6%1.50
- Draw20.9%4.79
- AVS win12.5%7.99
- Double chance Guimaraes or draw87.5%1.14
- Double chance Guimaraes or AVS79.1%1.26
- Double chance AVS or draw33.4%3.00
- Draw no bet Guimaraes84.2%1.19
- Draw no bet AVS15.8%6.32
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.577.6%1.29
- Over 2.553.3%1.88
- Over 3.531.1%3.22
- Over 4.515.4%6.49
- Under 1.522.4%4.46
- Under 2.546.7%2.14
- Under 3.568.9%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes47.1%2.12
- No52.9%1.89
- Yes and over 2.537.2%2.69
- Guimaraes win and yes26.7%3.74
- Draw and yes14.3%6.97
- AVS win and yes6.1%16.47
Team goals
- Guimaraes over 0.587.0%1.15
- Guimaraes over 1.560.6%1.65
- Guimaraes over 2.533.5%2.98
- AVS over 0.553.6%1.87
- AVS over 1.518.0%5.57
- AVS over 2.54.3%23.33
- Guimaraes clean sheet46.4%2.15
- AVS clean sheet13.0%7.72
- Guimaraes win to nil39.9%2.51
- AVS win to nil6.4%15.52
Handicap
- Guimaraes −1.542.3%2.36
- Guimaraes −2.521.8%4.59
- AVS +1.557.7%1.73
- AVS +2.578.2%1.28
- AVS −1.53.7%27.04
- Guimaraes +1.596.3%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored99
Favourite won56.6%
Avg chance given to result42.6%
1X2 Brier0.562
Over 2.5 called right62.6%
BTTS called right54.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 37.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 36 | 45.1% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 53.9% | 60.9% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 66.3% | 81.8% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 75.3% | 69.2% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 70 of 99 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5644 | 0.5422 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.4% | 44.8% |
| Favourite won | 57.1% | 58.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 70 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 99 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.