Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Guimaraes were clear favourites.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 12). Guimaraes had 20.1 days of rest, AVS 19.2 and had to travel.
Rest days20.1 · 19.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Guimaraes67%
Draw21%
AVS13%
Guimaraes68%
Draw20%
AVS12%
Guimaraes67%
Draw21%
AVS13%
Guimaraes60%
Draw24%
AVS17%
Guimaraes68%
Draw20%
AVS12%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Guimarães)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalBruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 5
Team strength
Guimaraes
AVS
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
28
AttackIn forecast
17
39
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesAVS
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.73
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.27
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
55%
Scored inContext
55%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.36
ShotsContext
9.82
3.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.82
29%
On target shareContext
29%
6.27
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
52%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.75
13.09
Shots allowedContext
13.18
5.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.73
3.67
BlocksContext
3.18
3.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.36
75%
Save rateContext
50%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
360
PassesContext
331
293
Accurate passesContext
254
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.58
13.64
FoulsContext
15.18
14.91
Fouls sufferedContext
12.55
2.36
Yellow cardsContext
1.91
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
60%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.60
ShotsContext
9.30
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
29%
On target shareContext
31%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.89
52%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.63
OffsidesContext
3.33
12.70
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.88
BlocksContext
3.30
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
77%
Save rateContext
52%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
356
PassesContext
327
289
Accurate passesContext
248
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.58
14.20
FoulsContext
15.20
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AVS
Rest19.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 19.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
25Juan Castillo(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
26R. Abascal
4Óscar Rivas
2Miguel Maga
48N. Saviolo
30Gonçalo Nogueira
16Beni
18Telmo Arcanjo
19O. Camara
7Nélson Oliveira
AVS
Confirmed XI
99João Gonçalves(G)
24Kiki
42C. Devenish
35Rúben Semedo
4S. Bane
15Jaume Grau
6Gustavo Assunção
14Ó. Perea
2Diogo Spencer
11B. Akinsola
18Nenê
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.60
AVS · Away
0.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-4
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | L 0–3 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Alverca | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| SC Braga | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Estrela | W 2–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Arouca | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Estoril | W 3–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 14 of 27 · 1.56 per game | 2 of 27 · 0.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Guimaraes wins0 draws1 AVS wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 1 Feb 2025Guimaraes2–0AVS
- 25 Aug 2024AVS1–0Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 0.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 2.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 64% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 9% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 55% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 45% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Guimaraes | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.90 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.36 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 7.36 | 9.11 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 9% 1/11 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.45 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.09 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.54 | 5.00 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Guimaraes | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.13 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.30 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa Portugal · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 5.21
Red cards0.40league 0.27
Cards 5+60%league 66%
Fouls26.8league 27.6
Penalties0.40league 0.49
Home wins40%league 35%
Guimaraes1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L28 Sep 25A · Alverca0–20
AVS1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L20 Sep 25H · Benfica0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Guimaraes11 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
AVS11 games · scored 8 · conceded 25
1
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
3
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 22
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
