Guimaraes vs Casa Pia – 6 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 6 · 18:00 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes 13th · 3 pts · 4 played LLWL

0–0Full time

Casa Pia 18th · 0 pts · 4 played LLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Guimaraes were clear favourites.

Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Guimaraes. Guimaraes had 5.9 days of rest, Casa Pia 7 and had to travel.

Rest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Guimaraes61%

Draw22%

Casa Pia16%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.82

Guimaraes54%

Draw24%

Casa Pia22%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Guimaraes61%

Draw22%

Casa Pia16%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.82

Guimaraes54%

Draw25%

Casa Pia21%

Expected goals 1.63 – 0.92

Guimaraes61%

Draw22%

Casa Pia17%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.84

Over 2.5 50% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Guimarães)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia

Cards per match 6.1
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 72

Team strength

Guimaraes

Casa Pia

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

28 AttackIn forecast 13

39 DefenceIn forecast 25

28 Form indexContext 9

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Guimaraes

Casa Pia

0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.75

1.72 xGVia Att/Def 0.59

0.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

-0.97 Goals minus xGContext -0.59

50% Scored inContext 0%

25% Clean sheetsContext 0%

16.75 ShotsContext 9.75

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

19% On target shareContext 21%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

60% Box shareContext 64%

5% ConversionContext 0%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.50

6.25 Shots allowedContext 12.50

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.25

2.25 BlocksContext 4.33

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

67% Save rateContext 52%

49% PossessionIn forecast 51%

420 PassesContext 412

343 Accurate passesContext 343

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.50

16.50 FoulsContext 12.50

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.75

2.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

-0.62 Goals minus xGContext -0.41

60% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.30 ShotsContext 10.00

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

25% On target shareContext 33%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.22

58% Box shareContext 68%

6% ConversionContext 5%

1.78 OffsidesContext 1.70

8.60 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.20 BlocksContext 4.38

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

70% Save rateContext 69%

55% PossessionIn forecast 45%

425 PassesContext 333

348 Accurate passesContext 256

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.71

13.30 FoulsContext 15.00

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes LLWL

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km32 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 28 · 3 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L31 AugA · SC Braga0–10.9 xPts
W23 AugH · Nacional1–01.8 xPts
L14 AugA · Sporting CP2–30.4 xPts
L8 AugH · Arouca0–11.5 xPts

Casa Pia LLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 9 · 0 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -4.3 vs expected

L30 AugH · Moreirense0–11.5 xPts
L24 AugA · GIL Vicente0–20.8 xPts
L17 AugH · Benfica0–70.5 xPts
L8 AugA · Maritimo0–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	Casa Pia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Aug	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	32 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

48O. Zych(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 5A. Sidibé 28Thiago Balieiro 23T. Strata

44L. Doucet 16Beni

11Gustavo Silva 20Samu 17M. Nogueira

24A. Ndoye

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31André Gomes(G)

75Pedro Rosas 43David Sousa 3Kaly 18André Geraldes

80L. Ofori 16Silvi

77B. Pauwels 70João Rêgo 19Kevin Prieto

20A. Jatta

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Casa Pia+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.50

Casa Pia · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Guimaraes wins4 draws3 Casa Pia wins

Goals per game0.25 – 0.63 Over 2.50% Both scored13% Clean sheets50% · 75%

11 May 2026Guimaraes0–1Casa Pia
28 Dec 2025Casa Pia0–0Guimaraes
1 Mar 2025Guimaraes1–0Casa Pia
28 Sep 2024Casa Pia1–1Guimaraes
24 Feb 2024Guimaraes0–2Casa Pia
23 Sep 2023Casa Pia0–0Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.75	0.00
Conceded per game	1.25	2.75
Match goals	2.00	2.75	2.65
Over 1.5	25%	50%
Over 2.5	25%	25%	50%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	25%	0%	47%
Clean sheets	25%	0%
Failed to score	50%	100%
Games	4	4

	Guimaraes	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	0.30
Conceded per game	1.40	1.60
Match goals	2.20	1.90	2.65
Over 1.5	50%	40%
Over 2.5	20%	20%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	30%	20%	47%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	40%	70%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.00
Corners conceded	3.00	2.25
Match total	6.00	6.25	8.22
Over 8.5	0% 0/4	0% 0/4
Over 9.5	0% 0/4	0% 0/4
Over 10.5	0% 0/4	0% 0/4
Cards
Cards	2.75	1.75
Opponent cards	3.00	1.50
Match total	5.75	3.25	4.06
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	75% 3/4	0% 0/4

	Guimaraes	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	4.33
Corners conceded	3.70	3.89
Match total	7.80	8.22	8.22
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	3.00
Opponent cards	2.70	2.00
Match total	5.30	5.00	4.06
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 72 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.68league 3.87

Red cards0.43league 0.15

Cards 5+72%league 36%

Fouls28.3league 25.3

Penalties0.43league 0.31

Home wins39%league 44%

Guimaraes8 with this referee

Record3-2-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

D30 Aug 25H · Arouca1–14
L19 Apr 25H · Benfica0–32
L10 Nov 24A · Santa Clara0–15
W12 Aug 24A · Arouca1–02
W17 Mar 24A · Chaves2–13

Casa Pia7 with this referee

Record2-3-2 Cards · opp.3.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

D8 Feb 26A · Nacional0–03
D9 Nov 25A · Benfica2–22
L8 Aug 25H · Sporting CP0–24
D22 Sep 24A · GIL Vicente1–15
W2 Dec 23H · Portimonense1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.