Guimaraes vs Moreirense – 30 Jan 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 20 Fri, Jan 30 · 20:45 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes 9th · 25 pts · 19 played LDWLL

1–0Full time

Moreirense 6th · 30 pts · 19 played DWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Guimaraes were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Guimaraes. Guimaraes had 6 days of rest, Moreirense 6.2 and had to travel 7 km.

Away travel7 kmRest days6 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Guimaraes48%

Draw26%

Moreirense26%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.10

Guimaraes47%

Draw26%

Moreirense26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Guimaraes48%

Draw26%

Moreirense26%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.10

Guimaraes41%

Draw27%

Moreirense32%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.23

Guimaraes49%

Draw26%

Moreirense26%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.14

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Guimarães)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 73

Team strength

Guimaraes

Moreirense

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 25

28 AttackIn forecast 17

39 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Guimaraes

Moreirense

1.05 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.37

1.42 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.37

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

58% Scored inContext 79%

32% Clean sheetsContext 37%

12.84 ShotsContext 9.26

3.53 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.61

28% On target shareContext 37%

7.05 Shots in the boxContext 5.42

56% Box shareContext 57%

8% ConversionContext 15%

2.19 OffsidesContext 1.71

12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.21

4.32 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

3.38 BlocksContext 3.22

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

70% Save rateContext 68%

50% PossessionIn forecast 50%

362 PassesContext 421

295 Accurate passesContext 352

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.76

14.42 FoulsContext 13.53

15.11 Fouls sufferedContext 14.95

2.37 Yellow cardsContext 2.53

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

60% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.90 ShotsContext 9.30

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

26% On target shareContext 41%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 5.10

61% Box shareContext 55%

9% ConversionContext 14%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.63

12.10 Shots allowedContext 10.50

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

3.56 BlocksContext 2.90

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

64% Save rateContext 62%

49% PossessionIn forecast 52%

356 PassesContext 453

292 Accurate passesContext 382

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.73

14.60 FoulsContext 12.70

14.80 Fouls sufferedContext 15.80

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km637 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Moreirense

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel7 km566 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	Moreirense
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan	6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	7 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	637 km	566 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27Charles(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 26R. Abascal 3M. Nóbrega 66T. Strata

23Diogo Sousa 16Beni

48N. Saviolo 11Gustavo Silva 19O. Camara

7Nélson Oliveira

Moreirense Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13André Ferreira(G)

17Álvaro Martínez 66G. Dambi Batista 8M. Stjepanović 76Dinis Pinto

2Diogo Travassos 25Afonso Assis 21Rodri Alonso 78Landerson

11Alan 9Luís Semedo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Moreirense Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Moreirense+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home 1.50points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-3
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.40

Moreirense · Away 1.10points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-5
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Guimaraes	Moreirense
Estoril	L 2–4 AW 3–2 H	D 3–3 A
FC Porto	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 1–2 H
Nacional	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 A
Casa Pia	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 H
Sporting CP	L 1–4 H	L 0–3 A
Rio Ave	W 1–0 A	W 3–1 H
GIL Vicente	D 0–0 H	L 0–2 A
AVS	W 4–0 H	W 2–0 A
Tondela	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Benfica	L 0–3 H	L 0–4 H
Famalicao	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
Santa Clara	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Alverca	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H
SC Braga	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Estrela	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 A
Arouca	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 A
Points	25 of 54 · 1.39 per game	27 of 54 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Guimaraes wins1 draws2 Moreirense wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.00 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets40% · 40%

23 Aug 2025Moreirense2–0Guimaraes
30 Mar 2025Moreirense2–2Guimaraes
3 Nov 2024Guimaraes1–0Moreirense
30 Mar 2024Guimaraes1–0Moreirense
5 Nov 2023Moreirense1–0Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	1.05	1.37
Conceded per game	1.42	1.37
Match goals	2.47	2.74	2.68
Over 1.5	74%	79%
Over 2.5	42%	58%	50%
Over 3.5	21%	26%
Both teams scored	37%	47%	54%
Clean sheets	32%	37%
Failed to score	42%	21%
Games	19	19

	Guimaraes	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.30
Conceded per game	1.30	1.30
Match goals	2.40	2.60	2.68
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	4.16	4.35
Corners conceded	3.42	3.88
Match total	7.58	8.23	9.14
Over 8.5	42% 8/19	41% 7/17
Over 9.5	26% 5/19	35% 6/17
Over 10.5	16% 3/19	6% 1/17
Cards
Cards	2.53	2.63
Opponent cards	3.11	2.11
Match total	5.64	4.74	5.33
Over 3.5	74% 14/19	63% 12/19
Over 4.5	68% 13/19	47% 9/19

	Guimaraes	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	4.33
Corners conceded	3.70	3.22
Match total	7.80	7.55	9.14
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.10
Opponent cards	3.20	2.50
Match total	5.90	4.60	5.33
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 73 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.97league 4.98

Red cards0.44league 0.29

Cards 5+56%league 59%

Fouls27.7league 27.2

Penalties0.34league 0.46

Home wins60%league 40%

Guimaraes11 with this referee

Record4-5-2 Cards · opp.3.1 · 3.1 Pens for · against4 · 1 Reds1

D20 Sep 25H · SC Braga1–12
L11 Aug 25A · FC Porto0–33
W16 Mar 25H · Estrela2–01
D24 Feb 25A · FC Porto1–12
D16 Dec 24A · Rio Ave2–21

Moreirense4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

L29 Aug 25A · GIL Vicente0–22
W5 Dec 24H · Sporting CP2–13
D21 Sep 24H · Famalicao0–05
D21 Aug 23A · Famalicao0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.